Central Banks Built This Gold Bull and Wall Street Just Turned It Violent | Brien Lundin

Gold's brutal 40% miner selloff was a "classic washout," not a breakdown, says Brien Lundin, and what comes next could leave Wall Street watching from the sidelines.

Speaking with Kitco News at the Rule Symposium 2026, the Gold Newsletter editor and New Orleans Investment Conference host said the June 24 plunge to $4,000 "really felt like capitulation," and that level has held as a floor since. He likens today's sentiment to 1999 and 2000, the bottom that launched the entire 2000s bull. And he argues the market has changed hands: no longer driven purely by central banks, "the Western market is making the price and the central banks and China are taking the price," he said, concluding they were glad to do it because gold was on sale, a shift that turned the moves violent.

Lundin expects easy money regardless of hawkish Fed minutes, arguing "the math is the math" and that Chair Warsh was installed "for one specific purpose, and that's to lower rates." He even reads Warsh's tough-on-inflation messaging as "rehearsed," with Trump's silence the tell. And he warns the pros, "on the beach drinking their pina coladas," may return after Labor Day to find gold up 5 to 10% and mining stocks up 20 to 30%, gains "missed through sheer inattention."

Recorded July 09, 2026.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Kitco news on-site coverage of the Rules Symposium Natural Resource Investing is presented by Paris Mining.

SPEAKER_01 0:11

All right, welcome back. I'm Jeremy Stafford of the Rules Symposium here at the beautiful Boca Ratan Resort in Florida. Now, my next guest has watched, I think, every gold cycle since the 1970s. He also edits gold newsletter and he runs one of the longest running investment gatherings in the country, the New Orleans Investment Conference. We'll be there with Kitco News this year. Now, when the gold miners fell almost forty percent this year, a lot of people panicked. He called it something different, a classic washout. So the question everyone wants answered is the bottom in. Let's welcome back Brian Lennon. Good to see you. Thank you, Jeremy. Always a pleasure. Uh and I'm sure you're having a lot of fun at a conference like this. I mean, today, obviously the medals are catching a little bit of a bid, but you know, we saw that correction take place. And uh you know, let's start with that, because you called it that classic washout, not really a breakdown. But gold's up a little bit. Is that low end? Do you expect this mid-July, mid-August bottom you kind of flag?

SPEAKER_02 1:03

Yeah, I I do. You know, in in a year when seasonality works, it doesn't always work. But when it does, it's usually mid-July to mid-August that the gold price bottoms. I actually think we might have been a little early this year. Um I I tell my readers, if you nobody really calls a bottom in the market. If you do, you're lucky you're not good. You that that's the bottom line. But that June 24th trading day when gold dropped through 4,000, when we posted the the deaf cross on gold and everything else, the next day I sent out an alert to my readers and I told them that you know that really felt like capitulation. Don't know if that was the bottom, but it sure felt like one. So far, it looks like that's holding. You know, we put a little breathing room between uh 4,000 and us. That seems to be a pretty good floor for the price right now. Uh so I'm optimistic. We have the uh mining stocks at a discount, metals prices at a discount at its discount right now, at the bottom of that cycle, and we also have seasonality at the bottom of the cycle. So you've got two things working for you as an investor, and uh, and I it looks to me like it's gonna be a typical market response where we're gonna get into a stronger fall.

SPEAKER_01 2:18

Yeah. You know, this is interesting because you can kind of explain to the audience if they don't really follow it. I mean, the the main gold miners index, obviously the GDX, it's fell about 40% from its highs. You know, some of these miners here obviously they they're at a discount right now. But but in your experience, I mean what separates kind of that washout that resets the bull from one that ends it?

SPEAKER_02 2:38

Well, uh one of the the things I stress to people is that we're in a market now that's being driven by Western traders, investors. No longer is it being driven purely by central banks. And central bank buying has evolved from less of a driver and more of a support to the price. Where the Western market is making the price, and uh the central banks and China are taking the price right now and glad to do it because it's on sale. So what we had and what we have now, thanks to the Western investors being involved, is more of a typical bull market where we have these kinds of uh furious rallies and the stomach turning drops that test your mettle, as it were, and test your convictions. It's nothing unusual. In my presentation earlier today at the conference, I showed a chart of the XAU mining index for the entire 2000s bull market. And if you just look at the endpoints, you say, well, it went up five, five and a half times. That's great. But that doesn't show you all those nerve-wracking episodes along the way where you had 25-35% drops, 40% or more, like we're having right now. So you just have to keep your eye on the big picture, what are the fundamental drivers, what's going to keep the market intact, and all of those fundamental drivers are still in place.

SPEAKER_01 4:01

Yeah, amen. And you know, when you look at it just from a historical standpoint, uh, do you think this run-up did it surprise you at all? I mean, you know, it went fast.

SPEAKER_02 4:10

It did. You know, I I've told people and I've looked at at uh analogs with the passport, and you look at the bottom of this market was probably about $1,050, and the base set in 2015. And if you project other markets to 70s, the 2000s, then we should get to six to eight thousand dollars at the end of whatever the cycle is. Uh earlier this year I would have told you, well, that that that's probably, or a couple years ago, I would say it would probably take you six to eight years to get there. Uh earlier this year I would have said six to eight months because that rally, there's no one who can honestly, in my opinion, tell you that was expected. Everybody was just uh aghast and and and agog at what was happening. Um it was obviously kind of a blow-off top, but it's a testament to the power of when that speculative money enters the sector because there's a lot of money out there, and this is still a very small sector globally.

SPEAKER_01 5:09

Yeah. And you know, that brings us to sentiment of, of course, something you specialize in, and you you've said that this sentiment is about as washed out as you've ever kind of seen it here. So when you compare it to today to those kinds of bottoms that launched that great gold bull market, I mean back in 99 and 2000. Walk us through that parallel just a little bit.

SPEAKER_02 5:26

Yeah, in 99 and 2000, that was really the the worst, the worst I've ever seen. Uh the metals were bombed out, the mining stocks were bombed out. And what we we had a real luxury in this market. You know, every bull market is different to some degree. Uh they they mostly have things in common, but there are some important differences. And the big difference in this one was that central banks were driving a bus, and central banks don't buy mining stocks and they don't buy silver. So we had that the luxury of having that primary risk factor. Will there be a gold bull market taken care of? There was a gold bull market, yet the traditional levers to that bull market were lagging and lagging uh quite significantly. Uh that wasn't the case in 99 and 2000. You you really had to have the the courage of your convictions to believe that the gold price was going to multiply from there, which it did, but that was still a big if. This was uh the easiest bull market in my experience. And uh from the standpoint of it just happened and it was largely unpredicted. I mean, we always thought, yeah, central bank buying, that's a factor. But no one that I know of looked at Russia invading Ukraine and said, Oh my god, they're gonna buy gold hand over fist. We didn't quite connect those two. Should have in retrospect, but that's what happened. And it still took a couple of years for that to really change alter the supply-demand situation and get gold really going.

SPEAKER_01 7:03

Right. You know, what's the tell kind of in your experience that turns that beaten-down sentiment back into the real bull leg? I mean, you we just talked about uh the generalist investor kind of staying out of this. But I mean, we look at what just happened in NVIDIA, trillion dollars just came out of that. Is any general capital coming into the space yet?

SPEAKER_02 7:20

I think some is, and I'm talking to people who, you know, who wouldn't know, and they say there is some interest, but it's a small fraction of what I think could enter the sector. Uh we have suffered a another factor that we've suffered from is all of the enthusiasm for AI and the latest thing to du jour. Uh before all of that really kicked in over this year, we saw the debasement trade kind of uh catch fire in the broader markets as a a theme, a meme even investment. And uh, you know, I kicked myself that I didn't think of that 20 years ago when I started talking about the debasement trade. I didn't call it the debasement trade and stick that label on it. Uh but once Wall Street did that, it became something that people could start just investing in. They didn't have to explain, oh, I'm jumping on that trade. Again, that gives us those peaks and valleys and is sentiment shifts and everything else. But overall, the important thing to remember is this little, or these oceans of liquidity sloshing around the world from the latest with investment dure to the next. And we're in this little lagoon of metals and mining, and when that money sloshes into our direction in just a little bit, it has just an outsized effect. So we just need to dip a ladle into those, all that liquidity out there, and it this whole sector will absolutely explode.

SPEAKER_01 8:48

You know, it's it seems like there's so much noise out there. Of course, we saw Warsh give some comments, we saw a little bit of a uh a discount on on precious metals after that first Fed meeting. Uh you called the new Fed chairs task force bureaucratic cover, right? I mean, you know, argue that the debt math really forces easy money regardless. And I mean we've talked about this before. The minutes came out hawkish this week. Does does that dink the thesis or just delay it?

SPEAKER_02 9:10

It just delays it. I mean, the math is the math. Um we also have a saying down here in the South that you have to dance with the one that wrung you. And Trump put Walsh in for one specific purpose, and that's to lower rates. And he's going to do that. You know, I found it really interesting that Walsh has his uh postmeeting press conference and where he really sets the stage, talks about how diligent they're going to be about fighting inflation's number one priority and everything else. And afterwards, we didn't hear a peep out of Trump about that. And I don't know if you've been watching, but he doesn't seem to be a person to hold his tongue. Uh so the fact that he did not say anything tells me that all of that was pre-approved, pre-arranged, rehearsed, uh, and just part of messaging. Uh Trump wants lower rates. The simple math of the debt and deficit demands lower rates. So it's going to happen.

SPEAKER_01 10:08

And I mean, we got the midterms. It feels like, you know, the the rats, they just want this to rally. Keep going, keep going. So I mean, does that does that kind of tune into it? This year might, it's looking bullish.

SPEAKER_02 10:18

Yeah. No, it it it really is. That and and Trump will talk about the stock market and everything that lower rates and everything that the implication of easier money policy gives. You know, they don't really have to do anything. They have to not raise rates and talk a bit dovish, and we know that just lights a fire under these markets, and and Trump can have something to talk about for the midterms.

SPEAKER_01 10:40

It's been interesting to watch. I mean, you know, everyone talks about that kind of reset. You see gold heading as high as six to eight thousand dollars by the end of this cycle. Yeah. Uh so just to kind of talk to the audience about what signposts that you look at that we've entered that final kind of faster phase of this thing.

SPEAKER_02 10:55

Well, you you you look at a blow off top kind of a thing. Uh, but uh there's a couple of ways to look at it. Now, six to eight thousand dollars, and we get in that range, I'm going to be pretty cautious going forward. But are the underlying factors resolved? Is there a resolution? Uh the resolution of this debt crisis, as it were, ultimately will be some sort of a reset where uh the markets regain credibility and the dollar is a currency, meaning that the tendency of the powers that be to print more and just go for easier money and kick the can down the road, that that's prevented in some way. That would entail some kind of a an attachment, a reattachment to gold as a governor on those, you know, very natural human tendencies. If we get, you know, I as I say I I analyze the past bull markets, if you consider the 1970s as one cohesive bull market, the gold price went up 24 times over that period. So that would project to something from this cycle, in this cycle, to the mid-20s. That in turn would imply that this cycle is going to end up in some kind of a reset. Not predicting that by any means, but I think we need to be aware of what the possibilities are and importantly what the trend is.

SPEAKER_01 12:14

I wanted to ask you kind of, you know, obviously we're looking at a lot of equities here on the ground, uh, gold, silver. Are you looking at copper? You looking at uranium, any other uh areas there.

SPEAKER_02 12:23

I'm looking at everything. Everything. I'm not a real thematic investor. I don't say I want to get I'm doing copper plays or silver plays or royalty or producers or anything. I look at every company on its merits. What is the argument from for higher prices? The bar is a hot lot higher now because there is a an argument, a compelling bullish argument for every commodity right now in virtually every company out there. So to really separate from the PAP, I have to find a company that has the uh uh the very real potential and even likelihood of going up an awful lot in an awfully short period of time. Right, right.

SPEAKER_01 13:03

Uh capital discipline in this cycle. I mean, you've seen it. You saw the last run-ups in the mining section, you saw people running numbers at too high of prices, signing checks over. Feels like it's more contained. People have learned some lessons here.

SPEAKER_02 13:15

They have, but human nature is still human nature. It never changes. So the the major producers, you know, most of the companies here have uh their business model, their plan is to find something and sell it to a major at a big windfall. Um the majors have been kind of sitting on their hands this cycle and not really going out there and spending money like drunken sailors. They will eventually, though. I mean, human nature is human nature. The the majors are paying down debts. Uh uh a good portion of them will be debt-free at some point, and you can only disperse those funds into dividends and stock buybacks to s to a limited degree. So they're going to have a lot of money burning holes in their pockets, and uh and human nature again, being what it is, they're gonna start spending.

SPEAKER_01 14:03

You know, we've got to talk about October. Uh, we'll be there. Of course, you run the New Orleans Investment Conference. Uh from the people who actually run the money, are the pros as washed out as the tape, or are they silently buying right now this dip?

SPEAKER_02 14:16

Uh there's a lot of money out there. Um it depends on what you think about the pros. Asia is buying, China's buying, central banks are buying. Uh, China bought last month more than it has in a in a few years. So they're taking the price. Um I there are some signs that I see that some of the the pros are buying. If you look at the fact that uh futures are uh have been out forming spot a bit recently, you know degradation's weird, huh? Yeah, it it really is. And uh so there are some signs or signals that they're getting involved and rotating back into the sector. But again, we're in the middle of the summer doldrums right now. Everybody's on the beach drinking their pea pina coladas, and uh when they get back to work on Labor Day, after Labor Day here in the U.S. or after the end of the summer, they're gonna look back and they're likely gonna see the gold price up five or ten percent, these mining stocks up twenty or thirty percent, and they've just missed those gains through sheer inattention.

SPEAKER_01 15:17

Right. And it's a hell of a time if that is the case to obviously have a conference, not to mention the oldest one. Uh tell me a little bit about what's the what's the debate you expect to kind of dominate the floor this year that the headlines aren't even touching?

SPEAKER_02 15:28

Well, I I think it's gonna be what we're talking about metals and mining. Uh we we have uh we're known for having the deepest roster of of the best experts out there. You know, you'll go to conferences, you might see three or four of the speakers that you that I have, but but you won't see 30 or 40. And and that's what we do. We provide just literally overwhelming value to our attendees, and we have a lot of the best companies uh that that every year turn out to be among the biggest winners of the the following year. So I don't really tell, I don't have a theme for each conference or tell my speakers what to uh to speak about, but I do find the best out there that have really valuable insights, uh good arguments, some arguments I don't agree with, but are well founded, and we share those of our attendees.

SPEAKER_01 16:19

And to your point, I mean, you know, those alternative arguments are great because you're not just living in an echo chamber. I mean, you actually bring that to fruition. Uh, I wanted to leave everybody with just a little bit of a lesson. I mean, you've been doing this a long time, and after every cycle you've seen, what would be kind of one of those lessons that you wish every new gold investor understood?

SPEAKER_02 16:38

Well, the um the key to this market, I think, is, and the exciting thing about it is that it's inefficient. It's remarkably inefficient, and that's a feature and not a bug. Because the market doesn't accurately price every opportunity at every moment in time. I mean, it's hard for an individual investor to get an advantage over the rest of the market with NVIDIA or something like that. But in this sector with these kinds of companies, you can find a gym lying on the ground that the market has temporarily overlooked. If you put in the work, if you go to Kitco News and watch the videos, if you go to these conferences, subscribe to some newsletters, uh, it's fun, it's exciting, it's a fun market. But if you put in a little bit of work, a little bit of research, you can get an edge over those other investors that uh that don't do that work.

SPEAKER_01 17:31

Well said, man. All right, Brian London, obviously, with the Gold Newsletter and the New Orleans conference, which we'll be attending here at KitCo News. So stay tuned. That's in October. Be sure to join us. I'll put a link in our description. Now, for all of us here at Kitco, we've been here all week and we're starting to wrap up, but stay with us. We have more guests after this.

SPEAKER_00 17:49

Kitco News, on-site coverage of the Rules Symposium Natural Resource Investing, is presented by Paris Mining.