Gold Is Above $4,000. Why Aren't Mining Stocks Soaring? | Oliver Dachsel

Aris Mining pulls gold out of the ground for about $1,500 an ounce and sold it last quarter for about $4,445. So while the Rule Symposium 2026 debates royalties and streaming deals, Oliver Dachsel gives a one-word answer to whether Aris needs outside capital: no.

The SVP Capital Markets at Aris Mining joins Kitco News from the symposium, on the day the company reported first-half production up 31% and revenue topping $680 million.

Dachsel calls the sector "a little bit like a coiled spring," arguing the drivers of the debasement trade "if anything, have intensified." He walks through the path from 257,000 ounces last year to 500,000 by 2028, self-funded from $425 million in cash and margins "solidly above 50%." Plus: Marmato's first gold pour "on track" for Q4, what Colombia's incoming pro-mining government means for Soto Norte, and why he says Aris "trades at a discount to its peers."

Recorded July 07, 2026.

Special thanks to our sponsor, Aris Mining, for making this coverage possible. To learn more, visit: https://www.aris-mining.com/

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00:00 - Gold Miners Whipsaw
00:54 - Aris Mining Q2 Results: $4,445 Gold
02:27 - 50% Margins and Cash Flow
03:20 - Investor Sentiment After the Correction
04:41 - Self-Funded Growth, No Royalties Needed
05:54 - Path to 500,000 Ounces: Segovia and Marmato
08:01 - Marmato Buildout: First Gold Q4
09:40 - Colombia's New Government and Soto Norte
13:06 - Toroparu Guyana: The Next Mine
15:18 - The Macro Case for Gold
18:32 - Valuation, Neil Woodyer, and Catalysts
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Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:00

Kitco News on-site coverage of the Rules Symposium Natural Resource Investing is presented by Paris Mining.

SPEAKER_00 0:12

Hey everyone, welcome back. I'm Jeremy Stafford. We're coming to you from the Rules Symposium on natural resource investing here at the beautiful Boca Raton Resort in Florida. Now, there's an old pitch in this industry. One simple line when gold goes up, the miners go up more. That's the leverage. And this year, investors find out it cuts a little bit of both ways, as they could say. The miners ran hard with gold, then corrected just as hard. So even as gold still continues around 41.50 today, a lot of them still trade like the market doesn't quite believe that the price will hold. So the real question here is not whether the gold is in a bull market, it's which miners actually turn a gold price above $4,000 into cash, and which ones are all a story. Now the next conversation is with Aeris Mining, a company that says it's firmly in the first camps. It's uh the head of capital markets, Oliver Deschell, joining me now. Oliver, good to see you.

SPEAKER_01 1:02

Nice to meet you.

SPEAKER_00 1:03

Uh we yeah, you know, it's an interesting one. We were talking a little bit about the the market before coming into air because you guys came out with some really fascinating news today. Uh I'll share with the audience and bear with me because there are some numbers here. Uh second quarter production of about 74,000 ounces, up 26%, first half up 31%, and you sold your gold in an average at around $4,445 an ounce. Uh, congratulations, first of all. Um obviously there's a simple version here for everyone. Uh it costs you about $1,500 to dig up an ounce of gold, and you're selling it for over $4,000. So I just got to ask you, I mean, what does that spread do for the cash flow?

SPEAKER_01 1:45

Yeah, I mean, cash flow is great. You know, we're in the fortunate position where we're uh scaling Aerosmining against this very favorable macro backdrop. And yes, gold prices have come off a lot, but still, I mean, we are at exceptionally elevated margins, right? I think we're in the best um part of the like the the um cycle that the industry has ever seen, right? And so um, you know, us being able to deliver organic growth against this favorable macro backdrop is incredibly exciting for us, and we have a tremendous amount of organic growth ahead of us. Last year we produced 257,000 ounces, and we are in the process of doubling gold production in the near term, and then potentially quadrupling gold production over the next five years. And you know, clearly um it is it is a great environment to be and to do just that.

SPEAKER_00 2:38

Yeah, it's been fascinating watching some of the miners uh printing at these levels. Of course, we heard about some of the other streamers out there getting a little bit of capital. I wanted to ask you because I mean, first uh first half revenue, I think it's it topped $680 million according to the company. So of every extra dollar the gold price gives you, I mean, how much of that's actually landing in the bank? It's a good margin.

SPEAKER_01 3:00

It's a good margin, yeah. So um, you know adjusted IBITA for the last 12 months as of Q1 was $610 million, right? So um margins are solidly uh above 50%, right? Wild. So it's it's it's great. It's um uh significant cash generation that comes from that, right? And uh clearly that funds our organic growth.

SPEAKER_00 3:28

And you know, the news that was just published, I mean, obviously uh you see a path, you have a big runway and you're fully funded, but I gotta talk about this whipsaw that we saw with the miners. I mean, we saw that price of gold and silver take a bit of a hit from those record levels, got a little frothy in there. It's been even more volatile for the mining side. Uh, what are you hearing from investors here at the show? I mean, people stepping back in after that haircut, uh, excited to kind of come back in?

SPEAKER_01 3:52

Yeah, it feels that way. Yeah. Feels like a great entry point. Yeah. You know, uh, when you think about what's going on, bigger picture. Yes, we've had a little bit of momentum lost as the debasement trade took a bit of a breather, but bigger picture, what has been driving the debasement trade, like those huge factors, if anything, have intensified, right? So I think uh we're in a situation where um it's a little bit like a coiled spring, right? The sector is doing well, and once the gold prompts momentum is back, then I think the the the the the the sector will do uh really well.

SPEAKER_00 4:32

Keep looking, because gold is catching a bit of a bid today, which is positive, but you know, there is that scar tissue, right? I mean, we've seen it in the last cycles where the miners dilute their share structure, investors get a little bit angry. Uh I've talked to a lot of people in this industry that have really been surprised by the discipline that management teams are showing this time around. You're seeing that as well, I mean, with your deals.

SPEAKER_01 4:52

Yeah, for sure. I mean, look, we uh expect to be able to self-fund our growth. There's no need for external capital, right? And it is a function of the balance sheet strength. We ended the second four quarter with $425 million cash on hand, significant cash generation from Segovia. Mamato is expected to become a significant generator of cash flow once we have delivered the expansion in Q4. So, in that, in conjunction with how well sequenced the growth is with one project following the next, uh, we expect to be able to self-fund that and comfortably at gold prices of $4,000 per ounce.

SPEAKER_00 5:29

Jeez, like did you ever dream of it? Not a few years ago.

SPEAKER_01 5:33

We I mean, I think uh, you know, we are all lucky to be doing it in this type of macro environment. And yeah, like it's it's uh it's it's great to be part of the mining industry in this part of the cycle. And I agree with you, there is a sense of uh restraint conservatism, and uh I think this is the sector seems to be you know very measured in terms of capital allocation uh and so far certainly not repeating the sins of the past.

SPEAKER_00 6:05

Yeah, I'm into that. Uh let's talk a little bit about what you're doing with all that cash you're throwing off. Uh you mentioned the asset marmato, and we'll talk about that first, but you know, you're still guiding 300 to 350,000 ounces this year, right? And targeting 500,000. Just walk people a little bit through that bridge and what actually gets you there.

SPEAKER_01 6:23

Okay. So um we have two operating assets in Segovia, uh, sorry, in Colombia, Segovia and Marmato. And we're expanding both of them organically through brownfield expansions. And Segovia is in the ramp up process to get to uh 300,000 ounces of annual gold production. Uh we expect to reach that level next year. So what we did at Segovia is we increased the throughput capacity by 50% last year by debottlenecking the processing plant by installing a second bone mill on time and on budget. And now we're ramping up mining rates. What we need to do is increase haulage capacity in order to be able to do this. And we expect to be able to run consistently at 3,000 tons per day from next year onwards. So that is what gets Segovia to 300,000 ounces. At Marmato, we are transforming what used to be a marginal asset into the second cornerstone asset within the portfolio. We're building the bulk mining zone, which is targeting a porphyry-hosted mesothermal gold deposit. And what that allows us to do is mechanize bulk mining by way of long-haul open stoping. And we're also building a dedicated new 5,000 ton per day carbon pulp plant. And um that project is on track for first gold pouring Q4 and then a stage progressive ramp up throughout 2027. We expect to be at 4,000 tons per day at the CIP plant by the first half of next year, and then exiting 2027 at 5,000 tons per day. So said differently, 2028 would be the first year when the CIP plant runs consistently at 5,000 tons per day, which in turn should enable Mamato to produce 500,000 ounces. Sorry, uh 200,000 ounces, and then Segovia and Mamato would be at 500,000 ounces combined.

SPEAKER_00 8:12

Combined. I mean Marmato is obviously it's a big, big lever here. Um the new plant, as you mentioned, kind of coming together. Is there anything that could go wrong to be between now and that first pour that you're looking for to kind of mitigate that risk?

SPEAKER_01 8:24

Look, I mean, everything is on track, right? Um the team is doing a tremendous job. There are certain items that are a little bit tighter on the construction timeline than others, right? There's things to look out for is the electrical substation, the gold room, but it's all well managed. Um so no, we feel confident about being able to deliver it in Q4.

SPEAKER_00 8:45

Yeah, and you did say it there. I mean, you said on time and on budget, which is an investor's ears going, oh, thank God. Uh okay, there's a debate running through the entire conference here. Uh, I just had Rick Rule on, and this is obviously his symposium. Uh he's arguing a lot of miners have well have to kind of fund their growth, obviously, by selling some royalty, a little bit of streamers. Um you ended the quarter with over 425 million in cash, basically, um according to the company. What do you actually need to kind of do you need to do any of that? No. You're funded.

SPEAKER_01 9:15

We are.

SPEAKER_00 9:15

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 9:16

Yes.

SPEAKER_00 9:16

Exciting place to be. Yes, for sure. And printing a little bit of capital. You got to give me more.

SPEAKER_01 9:21

Yeah, so you know, it's uh it's it's a great place to be. Uh as I said, like fortunate uh that we're doing this in this gold price environment, and you know, and uh as I said, like a function of how well sequenced the growth is with one project following the other. Tour Peru is the next one we expect to build. The FID expected in Q1 of next year, which then obviously follows on the heel of Mamato, which we expect to deliver in Q4 of this year, right? So um having it that well staged clearly helps.

SPEAKER_00 9:52

And I mean we should talk about jurisdiction, and obviously Colombia is going through a government change. Uh that seems to be more positive for the mining companies in that in that country. A key permit for your Soto Norte project is due this quarter, and the politics have shifted before. So just talk to shareholders about how this has become a safer jurisdiction.

SPEAKER_01 10:12

Yeah, so uh just to be clear, we expect to file our environmental license application this quarter, right? And then let's see how long the permitting process might take. Um, you know, our base case assumption had been around 18 months with this new government. Could it be quicker? Maybe, who knows, right? Hard to handicap, right? But what we do know is that Abalado is de Espria, the president-elect, has campaigned on a pro-business, pro-mining, pro-security agenda, right? And his uh appointees have recently been in the press being um quite constructive in the discussion of projects such as Soter Norte, right? Because I think this new government does appreciate what the industrial-scale gold mining sector can do for the economy, right? In terms of job creation, but also tax revenues, royalties, social investments, and then importantly, you know, also um the protection of the environment and protection of biodiversity. Because what we're doing is as part of our setup in Colombia is partnering with contract mining partners. And so we are formalizing or help to formalize uh what is still a vastly informal gold mining industry in Colombia, and that is quite positive in terms of uh in terms of protecting the environment, right? Yeah. Um so there's there's a lot that this new government seems to subscribe to in terms of how we have set up the project. And so, you know, I think our expectation would be that the government uh might streamline um license review processes without cutting corners, but being constructive and pragmatic.

SPEAKER_00 12:04

Yeah, it almost feels like you know the debasement trade obviously is not stopping anytime soon when we have nationalized debt crossing almost $40 trillion. But in a country like Colombia that has gone through different presidents, this seems like maybe the first time they want to get behind mining in a big, big way in a long time.

SPEAKER_01 12:22

Yeah, I think, you know, um this uh new government seems to be strongly pro-mining. Um mean strongly pro-natural resources, but in particular strongly pro-mining. And when you think about Soternarte, right, um, and you look at the PFS that we published in September of last year, the government take over the life of mine, which is 22 years based on reserves, would be between taxes and royalties, $7 billion at an assumed gold price of $2,600 per ounce, right? So that just shows you what projects like Soton Arctic can contribute, in addition to, of course, like economic growth and job creation and social investments, right? So it I think the gold mining industry can play an important role in uh in you know uh helping to further grow the Colombian economy.

SPEAKER_00 13:17

Yeah, well said. And Oliver, I mean, uh Guiana and the uh Toro Paru project, is that something you you you build? Is it something you sell or just hold as optionality?

SPEAKER_01 13:26

No, we expect to build it. I mean, we have not made a construction decision yet, but um we are in the process of working on a PFS that is going to be published in the second half of this year. In addition to that, we're doing geotechnical drilling, uh detailed engineering, uh, metallurgical test work. So from a technical point of view, um Toro Peru will be construction ready by the end of this year. And from a permitting point of view, we already have the environmental license. The only thing that's required is an amendment of the mining license. And Neil Woodyer, our chair and CEO, and uh some members of our team, they've been in Georgetown probably five times over the last eight months, meeting with the president, meeting with the Minister of Natural Resources, meeting with the Minister of Finance, and there's a lot of support in Guyana for nurturing the gold mining industry. Reason being, you know, they obviously have this tremendous advantage of offshore oil and gas, right? And that's going to make the country very rich in a short period of time. But what oil and gas, offshore oil and gas, doesn't do as much is uh create infrastructure within the country and creating jobs. And that is what the gold industry does, right? And also it obviously diversifies the revenue exposure for the government, right? Away from oil and gas to to gold as well. So we get the sense that uh the the government is quite supportive of gold mining in general, and also that that would apply to Toro Peru. So we expect to have that project fully permitted by the end of the year, and that would then put us in a position to make a construction decision in Q1. If we do that, at that point the construction timeline would be expected to be two and a half years. So first gold late 2029, at which point um uh Tor Peru would be expected to contribute about 235,000 ounces annually, right? Um so that would lift then gold production from 500,000 ounces to 735,000 ounces.

SPEAKER_00 15:25

Little different. Uh you guys have been executing very, very well and quickly over this year. Uh last kind of stretch, and I want to pull a little bit out here because the macro crowd is in Boca right now, even though right now I think it's a lunch and we're not seeing them. But uh that date debt and debasement is obviously gonna keep gold elevated for the next years. Just talk to me a little bit about what that means for a mid-tier producer like Ares. I mean, uh you're you're you're kind of built for that.

SPEAKER_01 15:51

Yeah, look, I think the uh outlook for gold is fundamentally positive, right? I mean, we at Ares we don't have a gold price forecast, right? Like we focus on what we can control, which is mine plants, which then dictates opex, and we clearly uh have kind of uh control over our CapEx budgets, right? So we focus on the things that we do control. Um, but we are fundamentally positive on the outlook for gold, given, you know, the debasement trade, like the fiscal uh outlook across the Western world is is is not particularly rosy, right? And um you also still have an elevated level of geopolitical tensions, they don't seem to be abating anytime soon. So, you know, I think all of that is positive for gold as a you know diversifier of risk in portfolios as a safe haven asset, right?

SPEAKER_00 16:48

Yeah, absolutely. It's been fascinating to watch. I mean, obviously we've been covering this run-up past 5,000, also the correction. But I mean, for a mid-tier producer like Eris, the the runway here for the next few years seems to be at an exceptional point.

SPEAKER_01 17:03

Yeah, I think we're uh at a um exceptionally exciting time for our industry and for Aeris mining in particular. You know, like when you think about the Aeris mining investment case, it is one about transformational organic growth in the near-term doubling gold production relative to last year's level to 500,000 ounces by 2028, and then potentially quadrupling gold production relative to last year's level by you know, maybe 2031, right? Like within five years. So it is transformational near-term growth given where we are in the kind of uh gold price environment, we expect to be able to self-fund it. And then uh the third important pillar to the whole investment case is a team that has done it multiple times before, right? Our chair and CEO, Neil Woodyer, is a serial entrepreneur. He created Endeavor Mining, grew that together with Frank Justra, grew that from zero to a market cap of two billion dollars, right? Um, then partnered with Nagi Severis, one of the richest men of Egypt, handed over the reins to the next management team, then founded Layer Gold, grew that from zero to a market cap of $800 million, merged it into Aquinox Gold, and now Ares mining is the third stint, right? So you have a team, and Neil brought a lot of those members, team members that were important to the Endeavor mining and Layer Gold successes, he brought them with him to Ares. And so you have a team that has the experience and the expertise to build gold mines to scale gold mining companies.

SPEAKER_00 18:40

Yeah, well, certainly. I mean, it's uh I I yeah, Neil's been fantastic at building mines. Uh okay, last one, and it's real fast here. I mean, if if gold never kind of went a single dollar higher from here at this point, I mean if it just sat right around $4,000, is Ares still a great investment, or does it kind of does the story need the price to keep climbing?

SPEAKER_01 19:01

No, for sure, it's uh I think an exceptionally attractive investment, right? When you no matter which valuation metric you look at, right, forward-looking EVE but our multiples below three times, uh, PNAF multiple somewhere between 0.3 to 0.4, significant free cash flow yields from uh next year onwards. So, you know, I think um Aeris Mining is still inexpensive, uh, trades at a discount to its peers. Fortunately, we had a lot of catalysts ahead of us uh associated with each and every one of our assets that should help us close that gap, right? Uh so we have an exciting 12 months ahead of us.

SPEAKER_00 19:43

Yeah, amen. Oliver Deschell of Aeris Mining. Thanks for joining us.

SPEAKER_01 19:45

Thank you very much.

SPEAKER_00 19:46

All right, that was Oliver Dashell of Eris Mining, and our thanks to Aeris for partnering with us on this conversation. Now, here's the through line, bigger than any single company. Now, the miners handed investors a wild ride this cycle, as you know, a big run, then that hard correction. But at these prices, the ones actually making money finally have to prove the gains can stick, or the market is right to keep on doubting them. Which side of the line Aeris is on, you can judge for yourself. Now, we're gonna be here all week long over at the Rick Rule Symposium in Boca Ratan, Florida. I'm Jeremy Stafford. Catch us next time.

SPEAKER_02 20:17

Kitco News on site coverage of the Rule Symposium Natural Resource Investing is presented by Eris Mining.