Gold Tests $4,000: The ‘60% To 70% Probability’ Of A Bottom | Gary Wagner

Gold futures tested the key $4,000 psychological level this week under intense selling pressure before catching a late Friday bid. Gary Wagner joins Jeremy Szafron, Senior Anchor of Kitco News, to break down the technical damage and explain why he sees a "60% to 70% probability" that gold has established a firm technical floor.

Wagner outlines the critical resistance levels gold must break to save its broader bullish trend, noting that a return to record highs will be a "hard climb back up." The analysis also covers silver's resilience as it reclaims its 200-day moving average, outperforming gold during the recent drawdown. Plus, Wagner weighs in on how macro liquidity shifts - including the $75 billion SpaceX IPO and reports of a possible interim U.S.-Iran agreement around the Strait of Hormuz - are impacting the charts, and what the CME's upcoming move to 24/7 trading for retail gold contracts means for technical weekend gaps.

Recorded June 12 2026

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CHAPTERS 
00:00 - Gold Tests $4,000 & Market Macro Shifts
01:45 - The $4,000 Technical Floor & Support Levels
06:40 - $6,000 Elliott Wave Target & Resistance at $4,370
09:50 - Inflation Data & Fed Rate Hike Probabilities
11:50 - Silver Outperforms & Reclaims 200-Day Moving Average
21:20 - CME 24/7 Gold Futures Trading Impact
25:00 - Gary Wagner's Technical Roadmap for Next Week

#Gold #Silver #GaryWagner #KitcoNews #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #Commodities 
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Transcript

SPEAKER_03 0:00

All right, gold took a hard hit recently with the latest wave of selling, pushing the metal down near the $4,000 level before finding a floor and catching a late Friday bid. Right now, the broader markets are absorbing a flood of cross currents. We got billions in institutional capital flowing into the SpaceX IPO. Crude oil is sliding on reports of a possible interim US Iran agreement around this trade of poor moods and consumer sentiment just caught a slight bump off. Now, while the macro picture shifts rapidly, we need to know what the charts are signaling. Is this current range a legitimate technical recovery or just a temporary pause before the sellers return? We're pulling up the futures charts with Gary Wagner right now.

SPEAKER_02 0:40

Kitco News, chart this with Gary Wagner.

SPEAKER_03 0:44

Welcome back. I'm Jeremy Saffron. Now, we purposely held off our technical breakdown until the end of the week to let the market digest a dense slate of economic data and geopolitical maneuvering. Now, if you've been watching the board recently, the selling pressure was intense. ActiveComex Gold Future sliced through psychological support with the deep correction wick, reaching all the way down near the $4,000 mark. And as we head into the weekend, the tape has flipped. Gold fought its way back a little bit here into the $4,200 trading range, and silver is attempting to build a base between $66 and $68. And to map out exactly what's happening here on the charts, we bring in our very own Gary Wagner. Good to see you, Gary. A lot to talk about this week.

SPEAKER_00 1:27

Great to see you, and you are correct. We have seen gold trade under tremendous pressure. Silver has actually been outperforming gold in terms of percentage gains during updays as well as percentage drawdowns during days in which prices go lower. But we saw gold hit what I believe is a potential floor, a level of support. And to me, that's exciting because look, we have been waiting for that for quite some time. After hitting the all-time record high above 5,500 a few months ago, we've seen a series of lower highs as well as lower lows. I am hoping, or I am I shouldn't say hoping, but I'm under the belief that once it hit a key psychological number, we saw buyers re-enter the market and really bid gold prices much higher, this being yesterday. Today there's a lot of uncertainty, but I think that all of the financial markets have been not so much blurred, but changed their focus to the IPO announce of SpaceX. So their other markets are getting a lot less attention today.

SPEAKER_03 2:46

Yeah, yeah, well said. Uh been interesting to watch. Of course, we're not going to cover SpaceX today, but uh quite an uptick too. Um, okay, define that floor for us a little bit. I mean, what exact future kind of level were you waiting for? And kind of why does that level matter technically for you?

SPEAKER_00 3:03

Well, 4,000 to me is a key psychological number. And if we look at the chart, we can see that after the high that came in in March, we had a first low that came in really down here. Then we had a lower high compared to this high, then again a lower high. And then we saw gold consolidate right around 4,500, a pretty big spread, about 4561 down to about 4457. But then as recently as a week ago Friday, it fell out of bed, breaking below that. So we had 4,500 closing at 4360, and then it drifted lower all week up until yesterday when we had the lowest low, and I'll compress this chart. The lowest low that we have really seen since November of last year, and then a substantial recovery yesterday, in which we saw gold open around 4100 and then close right around 4230, right in that area. And it's the fact that this key psychological number, 4,000, that's what stands out to me. Because when we look at the technical evidence, and that's what this green line stands for, this low here, it roughly matches up with this series of bodies here, this small area here. But there's not a lot of historical data in which gold has been at 4,000 because we saw it on the way up, it just sliced through it. On the way down, it traded as low as 3,900. We then formed a base back middle of November, and then that slow methodical climb up to the record high. And then we had what a three-day drop from above 5,500 to 4,400. Comes back up, and that's this is the first lower high here. We come and we make this low. This is the first low we'll look at. When we compare it to this low, it is lower. We have then a lower high consolidation and then a lower low here. So I believe that in terms of strength of this bottom, is that those market participants that were looking to buy some kind of a dip in the market, yeah, felt that the psychological level, $4,000 an ounce, was something that they got their, they they dipped their toe back in the water. And that's why we saw it move from about $4,050 to close yesterday at $42.35. That's a tremendous move. And so that's why I believe that this is an opportunity in which if we get follow-through next week, and that to me that's the key, because we have very little data when you look back to say, well, why is $4,000 a floor? We don't really have points in time in which we had solid evidence of a consolidation, but nonetheless, we do have certain bottoms right in here in November, in which that was an area in which it consolidated for either a week or more and then pop back up. And that's why I believe that there's a decent probability, I would say 60 to 70 percent, that this particular area right here at 4,000 could in fact be a technical level of support. We'll have to see because we we want to see follow through next week.

SPEAKER_03 6:49

Yeah, yeah. No, exactly. And I mean, you know, to your point, I mean, even next week we got the FOMC meeting as well. There's a lot kind of hitting the tape at the same time. But Gary, let's stretch out maybe beyond next week, just for a moment. I mean, for the summer gold trade, are you expecting this floor to kind of hold and launch that next leg high? Or do you think gold chops sideways and and you know rebuilds before any real breakout here?

SPEAKER_00 7:11

Either one would be a bullish scenario after you consider that it was well above 5,500 and dropped to 4,000. That's a tremendous drop, and that with a series of lower highs all the way down, and then a lower low compared to this low, and then this low here. In terms of like support, if it did drop, I would look at this bottom right here, and this comes in at around 3930. But I that would be the most logical place if we saw a dip. But I do believe there is at least a 60 to 70 percent probability that we will find a floor. Now, if we do, does that mean that the the bullish faction is is out of the uh that the bullish faction is able to work with this and move it higher? And are we back in a bull market? Yeah, to do that, we have to overcome a couple of levels of resistance. This first one at 4378, and it's based upon these real bodies that came in mid-March, and then again, this point at 4,500. 4,500 again is a key psychological number, as well as having some data, but not really strong data, because you can see it's kind of above and below uh as recently, let's say as the end of May. And it's this bottom, I believe, that if we can overcome that, this is where we might find potential resistance if we get follow-through. Now, today we're not seeing much action. It's almost unchanged on the day. But then again, I think that uh the IPO launch by Elon Musk has taken a lot of fuel out of other markets, other equities, as well as the commodity markets as a whole. Yeah. Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 9:04

Speaking of fuel, uh, when we spoke to you last, I think it was back in early May, Garrett, you mapped out kind of that Elliott wave structure, pointing to that $6,000 level gold by maybe end of year, noting, though, that huge deep pullbacks are often necessary expenditure of energy. I mean, you know, given the technical damage that we kind of saw on the metals as it tested that $4,000 level, is that broader, bullish kind of roadmap still intact, or or does this recent price action force you to kind of recount the waves here?

SPEAKER_00 9:33

Well, I think that um obviously what we're witnessing is is and the most current data is what we have to pay most attention to. The fact that we broke down and we broke below this one area at around 4365, even if the top ends up being right around 5,600, granted, it's not 6,000. If that's the case, I think it's going to be a hard climb back up. Honestly, it could do that, but we have to see other things because what we have also seen over this year is basic nuances to basic paradigms that didn't have the kind of push-pull we're seeing now. And what I mean by that is one of the reasons we're seeing pressure is that inflation is up, and that has raised the expectations. I believe, according to the CME's Fed Watch tool, it's at around a 56% probability, kind of in the middle of one rate hike this year by the Fed. And it seems as though inflation has always been a dynamic that could have really bullish tailwinds for gold. In this case, we saw bearish tailwinds because they're looking at yes, there's higher inflation, but is that temporary? And a rate hike will not be temporary. They're not going to raise rates and then cut them at the next FOMC meeting. Now, the rate hike is not really expected at the meeting that will transpire next week, but sometime this year. And so that's what it seems as though market participants are focusing on more than the fact that inflation has rose. I believe uh the last numbers that came out was 4.2% on an annual basis, which is well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for inflation.

SPEAKER_03 11:32

Yeah, well said. I don't know if they'll ever get back to that 2%. Uh okay, I got a little pivot over to silver. It managed to stabilize in that 66 to 68 dollar range. Uh I feel like it hasn't shown the same bounce uh energy kind of today that we're seeing in gold, at least. I mean, uh, based on your futures chart, is silver's hesitation kind of that potential warning sign that the broader metals space isn't kind of out of the woods yet, you think?

SPEAKER_00 11:59

Well, I brought up a chart in which we're looking. Let me uh get this to our current data here. I've got silver obviously on the left, and then gold on the right. And you can see that although silver fell out of bed, when we look at gold, and I'm going to move back to the full-size chart, it really fell much harder in terms of the percentage drawdown in this case, which typically we look at silver to outperform gold on the upside and outperform the decline as it's going down. The attention has been in gold, and I believe that's because when we look at this long-term chart, I've just compressed our daily chart. This was a long methodical climb back up. Really, if we start from the end of October 2025 at 3,900 up to this first unreal high on a futures contract, and that's what we're looking at, not spot. We went, we exceeded 5,600, but then we expected some sort of decline, but we got this huge sell-off, which only lasted two days. The big day being uh the 30th of January, when gold opened roughly at 5,400 and closed at 4,900. So a huge drop in the market. I think that spooked a lot of people, and it did recover though, but with a lower high, and then a secondary lower high, and to some degree a lower high here. So the fact that we have hit this bottom, I think what's important is many traders uh will look at key numbers, and this I call them the century marks, meaning 4,000 is a key level that you want to watch. Now, historically, we don't have a ton of data that matches really good consolidation. But I think what works to the bull's favor right now is the recovery of yesterday, in which it traded to the lowest low that we have seen since November, and then bounced off of that really, really strongly to 4200. Today it opened a little bit higher. But as I say, today it's interesting because we're basically unchanged. And I don't I look at that. You can say, well, it's summer trading, which the liquidity and the volume tends to contract. But I think it's other things going on in the financial markets, specifically the IPO that's just sucked the attention of multiple asset classes, at least for today. That's gonna change next week because now that new issue is in the marketplace, and and the IPO itself is only going to happen once, and that was today.

SPEAKER_03 14:47

So that, I mean, you know, taking a little bit of that capital, that bit out. I mean, silver, getting back to silver, I gotta ask you because I mean it's historically the the high beta leader in this space. I mean, doesn't its failure to kind of aggressively bounce alongside gold signal that that underlying structure of this metals rally is a little bit weaker than it was right now, and maybe those capital flows too.

SPEAKER_00 15:09

Well, that is true, but if you look at the silver chart I've just put up, the red line represents the long-term simple 200-day moving average, and the green line represents the uh long-term 50-day moving average, and you can see that silver has popped just above this, and this is a daily chart. Now, when we go to gold, uh let's put up the ribbon again so we can make some sort of comparison. What you can see is once gold broke below again in red, the 200-day, 50-day 50-day indicates what our short-term trend is. Above that price point, short-term, we're we're looking at a bull market. Below it means we entered a bear market. And we can see that back in March is when we broke through it, and that acted as resistance not only in April, but uh then again on May 12th. So we saw times when gold would move up, and rather than challenging and break back above the 50, because when we look at this long record, and you'll see that gold has remained pretty much above its 50-day moving average up until the middle of March. And we have seen really a year, a year and a half in which we saw gold move tremendously once it broke above that, which would be January 2025, except for a little area in which it challenged that prices stayed above the 50-day moving average. And that's where all of the bulls, including myself, came out and said, well, this is concrete technical evidence that we are solidly in a bull market, but that's up until we weren't. In other words, when we broke through this level, this level was a key and critical level, and it took gold much lower, as I said, this week down to near $4,000 an ounce, and it found support yesterday. And that's why to me uh next week is so critical because we need to see follow-through buying, and we need to see higher pricing in gold with our first level of, I believe, potential resistance coming in at $43.75 to 4360. That's the area we want to look at. If it can break through 4350, 60, then I believe that we've got a clear shot to about 4,500 before we encounter any kind of strong technical resistance.

SPEAKER_03 17:51

Yeah, yeah, interesting. So 43, okay, okay. Hey, and before, uh, because I got to ask you about the CME, before we do that, and again, I'm going back to silver for a second, but everyone's asking for it just because the carnage has been interesting. I wanted to, I mean, it's the higher beta metal right now. You brought up that moving average, it just kind of reclaimed that moving average. Is that kind of a meaningful breakout signal, or do, or do you just need a daily close above it to kind of confirm the move?

SPEAKER_00 18:16

Well, you you want to see more than just a close above it. You want to see a sustained move and either consolidation with the trading just above it, not necessarily moving much higher. What you don't want to see is on a closing basis for more than two or three days for prices to move back below it. And that's the key difference, also, because if you recall from our gold chart, and I'll just pull up real quick, you can see how far once gold broke through the 200 day, it had been trading and trailing lower, but it's never really challenged that again. Unlike gold, silver was able to break below it and a couple days later come to it and then recapture it. I just want to verify we're looking at a daily chart, which we are. So just today moving back above it, yesterday moving to it, and to a market technician, the 200-day determines the long-term trend of a stock or commodity, in this case gold. And so as it as it trades above it, we can say that on a really long-term basis because this is basically a one-year average. The 50-day, of course, is much shorter, but we look at this for long-term trend definition. If it's trading above it, we consider that bullish. Now, I've compressed the silver chart, and you can see once we break above it, it does challenge the 50 day, but it widens in terms of where current price is to the 200 day. And as it widens, you can see the acceleration. Of course, the 50 day is more sensitive, and that's why you see the widening between the 50 and 200 day. But then you saw them contracting, meaning the distance between the 200 and the 50. And as it contracts, we've already seen chart damage. And with silver, we broke below the 50, we moved back above, then we broke below it. We're well below the 50 day, but now we've broken back above the 200-day moving average. And that on a long-term basis is important because market technicians use these two uh average lengths, meaning a 50-day and a 200-day, to determine short-term trend and long-term trend. And it's really easy once we put these up to see what a bullish trend it was in, and the fact that it broke through here, comes back up and breaks. So you know that we're not in a fully bullish demeanor after we had this severe break, after hitting the all-time record high in gold, which excuse me, silver, which was above a dollar, $120 per ounce. I remember those days, Gary.

SPEAKER_03 21:03

I remember those days. I remember them well. Uh hey, Gary, how many years have you been doing this for? Since 84, so a good amount of years. Uh well over 40. Okay, well, let me ask you something here, uh, because you're you're you're a great market technician, and the CME just announced plans to launch a 24-hour, seven days a week trading for its one-ounce retail gold futures contract starting July 26th, I mean, pending regulatory review to kind of address Sunday night price gaps. And I gotta ask you, I mean, as a technician, I mean, doing this since then, I mean, how much of a challenge are those weekend gaps when you're analyzing a trend? And do you think the 24-7 trading offer cleaning cleaner kind of data for retail traders?

SPEAKER_00 21:47

What are your thoughts? You know what? I've done this for long enough to remember when I first got in the industry, uh, gold shut down at night and then returned again in the morning. In other words, we didn't have 24-hour markets from the beginning, uh, which I mark as Sunday afternoon, which corresponds to Australia at 9 o'clock. That's when these markets open. They close when the COMEX, the old COMEX, uh, now it's Globex. But when that closes, my time, Hawaii time, around noon on Friday. And in between that, uh, that's when you have a tremendous time gap in which any uh real changes, in other words, uh conflicts, military conflicts that blow up at that point, or fundamental news events can cause gaps in the market. In other words, it might close, let's say, at on silver at $80 an house, it opens at 90 or closes at 80 and then dips down to 70, and you get those gaps. Typically, as a technician, we look for those to get filled. But I remember there was always an open close on a daily basis. Once they became 24-hour markets, except for the weekend, uh, watching the markets became a two-person uh type of scenario in which the other person that watches the market is in Europe, so that his mornings correspond and my mornings correspond. So we have 24-hour coverage. Um, and that's something that it's not that recent, but I remember times when we watch markets open and close on a daily basis and you had that nightly gap. Um to go to 24-hour markets, if they do that, they do that. And the one ounce contract is not what the hedgers are using, the the actual miners that are hedging, or those who need it, whether it's jewelry or technology companies that need gold or silver in terms of their raw element in which they produce their products, they're not hedging with a one-ounce contract.

SPEAKER_02 23:58

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 23:59

Um, so I don't the fact that they would do it with a one-ounce is specifically geared towards the retailer, and they account for a percentage of the market, but the dynamics or the mass of liquidity in terms of volumes and contracts being traded is composed of retail investors, but the bulk of it is institutional traders and then manufacturers that need it and mines and such that produce it. That's where the bulk of the liquidity comes in because they're protecting the price. They they're not so interested if it goes up or down, but they know that depending on which side of the fence they're on, whether they're they need that product or they mine that product, that if there's a great shift in it, um, that will change their their profit structure and they could be operating at a loss. And that's why it's so important that they hedge, that they protect a certain price that's there and make sure that if there is a dramatic change in price, that they're still making the spread, I'll call it the ask bid, between what they're paying for it and what they're using it for, and then turning a product out for. That's where the bulk of the liquidity and open interest is for the precious metals, the miners on one hand, and the manufacturers and companies that utilize the product on the other hand. The retail investor accounts for a percentage of the overall open interest, but I believe the vast majority is those that are hedging institutional traders, not the hedge funds, but those that are either mining it or need those metals to produce their end product.

SPEAKER_03 25:42

All right. Good sum up. Before I let you go, let's sum this up for viewers and listeners too. Let's do it really, really quickly. Just pull up that gold chart. I mean, if we're heading into next week's open, kind of just give our audience a clear roadmap. I mean, what's that definite kind of price range on the active futures contracts that that the Bulls must really defend to prove this kind of recovery as some staying power? Because obviously we've got the FOMC, everything else here. But that one little note.

SPEAKER_00 26:08

4,000 is really a key and critical number. Um, if it does break below it, it could go $100 lower. But below that, there's really no technical level of support. You have the market moving almost straight up. This is the only place it consolidates. And then here at around 4,000, it consolidates. What a market technician looks at is bottoms in the market or tops in the market, such as here, here, here, and here as levels of potential support or resistance. Uh one's man, one man's floor is another man's ceiling. Think of it uh the way I always describe it as if you're sitting on the second floor and that's where your your dwelling or office is, you put your feet and you bang it on the floor, it's your floor, but the person on below it is looking at their ceiling and it's the same structure. I look at support and resistance in the same way. If it's above it, it's supportive. If it's below it, it becomes resistance. So the fact that it traded lower and stopped just above 4,000, and that's a key number, 4,000, 3,000, 5,000, those are key, I call them century marks, and it's just my own way of looking at it. Um, but that's a key number that has to hold. If it doesn't hold that after about 3,900, there's no level of really strong technical support that comes in for a while. The next thing that you look at are the moving averages. Now, blue is 100, green is 50, and red is 200 days. And so the main thing, and in hindsight, is when the 100-day crossed above that, it came out of full bullish alignment. Full bullish alignment is the longest-term moving average on the bottom with the lowest value. So you've got 200, 150 days. That's full bullish alignment. Then you look for a widening in that, then you see them coming together. The the real mark that I look at, kind of like a X marks a spot, occurred on Friday, the 8th day of May, when the 100 crossed above the 50. So that's what we want to look at. Now we're below all of them, and I don't know any technician that uses a moving average longer than uh this red one, the two hundred day. And so that's a key level. And once it broke through that, the only thing we can do, we're not going to use, you know, a 300 day or any of that. The only thing we can do is look at different points in history to see if there's levels of support in which it came to that point, consolidated and moved back up, or came to this point and broke through with the vengeance. The key number that gold bulls need to see gold hold is just above 4,000. The next level of real resistance should gold continue to move higher, is going to be around 4370, basis most active futures contract.

SPEAKER_03 29:05

All right. Interesting week indeed. Gary, great work as always. Thanks for joining us through the charts. That was Gary Wagner breaking down the gold and silver technical setup. Now, the takeaway here is simple. Gold may have found a near-term floor, but the market still has to prove it. And the Bulls need to defend support. Silver needs to hold that move above its key moving average, and traders should keep a watching a pretty close eye on those overnight gaps because they can still shape sentiment when liquidity is thin. I'm Jerry Saffer. Thanks for watching Kitco News. Hit subscribe, leave a comment with gold and maybe your silver levels that you're watching going into next week, and stay with us for continuing market coverage.

SPEAKER_02 29:44

Kitco News chart this with Gary Wagner.

SPEAKER_01 29:48

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