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Silver Is Leaving America as China Buys at a 20-Year High | Josh Phair

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Spot gold and silver are sliding to two-month lows as paper markets react to a potential U.S.-Iran interim peace draft, even as President Trump calls the Iranian reports a "complete fabrication". But behind the futures screens, the physical market is undergoing a massive structural overhaul. Kitco News Senior Anchor Jeremy Szafron sits down with Josh Phair, CEO of Scottsdale Mint and the Wyoming Reserve, for an exclusive ground-level update.

Phair breaks down the reality of physical supply, revealing why silver is actively leaving the United States for overseas markets and why LBMA good delivery premiums have jumped 20 to 40 cents in recent weeks. The discussion uncovers the quiet corporate shift away from paper—including tech companies planning $200M physical bullion purchases and Tesla amending SEC bylaws for physical gold. Discover what the operational flow tells us about the decentralization of physical assets, the State of Texas releasing its own gold coins in six weeks, and why the ultimate financial reset is tracking toward 2030.

Recorded May 27 2026

Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: @JeremySzafron (https://twitter.com/JeremySzafron) 
Follow Kitco News on X: @KitcoNewsNOW (https://twitter.com/kitconewsnow) 
Follow Josh Phair on X: @JoshPhilipPhair (https://twitter.com/JoshPhilipPhair)

Chapters:
00:00 Trump, Iran & Gold Drop
01:07 Q1 Demand vs Current Flow
05:32 Tech Giants Buying Gold
11:45 The $50B Wyoming Fund
14:17 The SILVER Act Impact
17:35 Texas Gold Coins Coming
18:44 Global Bullion Interventions
26:06 The Real Silver Bottleneck
29:43 Moving Silver by Air
31:00 Analysts Missing the Paradigm
32:31 $325B in Bank Losses
37:30 Home vs Private Vaults
40:11 The 2030 Reset Timeline
42:53 Market Wrap & PCE Data 

#Gold #Silver #PreciousMetals #JoshPhair 
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The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.

Disclaimer:  
The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.

SPEAKER_01

Kitco News in Focus with Jeremy Saffron.

SPEAKER_02

Welcome back. I'm Jeremy Safron. Gold is trading around 4,400 this morning, down roughly 1.5%, sitting at a new two-month low. Silver off more than 3%. This morning, Iranian state media published what it claimed was a draft peace deal saying the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within a month. Now, oil dropped, markets rallied briefly. Then President Trump said he was not satisfied with negotiations. The White House called the Iranian report, quoting uh directly here, a complete fabrication. Trump said nobody would control the strait, and the U.S. would watch over it. And in his words, maybe we'll have to go back and finish it. So no deal is done, no deal is close. That is the paper market story. Here's what it's not telling you. While traders watch the Iran headlines, obviously governments around the world are quietly doing two things at the same time. They're restricting their citizens' access to physical metal and racing to control the supply chains themselves. Now, India, Malaysia, Ghana, France all moved on bullion in the last 30 days in opposite directions, depending on whether you're a citizen or a central bank. Josh Fair is a CEO of Scottsdale Mint, fabricating gold and silver for central banks and governments in over 40 countries. He's also CEO of the Wyoming Reserve Vault, chosen by the state of Wyoming over the major banks for state gold custody, and then selected by Wells Fargo to store institutional precious metals. In other words, he's not watching this from a screen. He's inside of it. Josh, good to see you. Welcome back to Kitco News.

SPEAKER_03

Great to be back. Thank you.

SPEAKER_02

You know, I talked a little bit about pricing and obviously still up year over year, but gold, silver down a little bit this morning. What is the physical market doing before we kind of jump into this?

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, uh I think we were electric in quarter one, really all over the globe, and in particular in the United States. Um probably over the last 30, 60 days, things have kind of quieted on the physical side in the United States, but continues to be quite vibrant overseas. Like in particular, Southeast Asia is incredibly busy with with the in particular silver purchasing. So about this time last year, you know, gold was taking most of the spotlight, and then and then silver finally uh you know came into the the scene late late in um 2006.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03

So we're definitely seeing a lot of material move uh and ship out um outside the United States right now. And I think it's going to what it feels like, it's going to markets where they have uh they definitely have a tightness of physical supply.

SPEAKER_02

I wanted to kind of jump into this. I guess before we go anywhere, you know, let's start where no Bloomberg terminal kind of goes here. You're not just watching a screen, you're sourcing the metal, you're filling orders, you're watching premiums and managing delivery timelines. Now that is ground truth that does not show up in any public data set. So when gold drops like today, roughly, you know, 2%, coming back a little bit here today in a session. What changes first in your world? Is it is it retail order flow, wholesale behavior, premiums, delivery, phone calls from larger buyers? I mean, walk us through what a daily down day actually looks like from the fabrication floor.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, typically big, it seems like big up days uh get get people pretty excited. People feel like it's moving away from them. Big down days also, it's it's kind of when we flatline or we trade in a relatively tight range that things kind of slow down. Definitely, I think moments like now, you know, gold gold is on the lower end of its, you know, kind of in its range. Um there's an awful lot of people that have accumulation strategies that are looking for times like now. Uh and obviously we don't know you know where this thing may bounce bounce from, but there's an awful lot of uh, I would say, institutions huge, that that have purchase programs that are going on. And you know, sometimes they they push uh a little bit bigger lever uh on the buy side, you know, days like today.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, interesting. Uh and I'm not sure if anyone asked you this on camera before, but the you know, they obviously the headline is U.S. retail looks quiet, but global demand is not quiet. How far out is Scottsdale Mint booked right now compared to a normal market? And and you know, has the has the mix of who's ordering shifted? Is it kind of retail versus institutional versus sovereign since the war began in February?

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, you know, we were, I would say January, February were record, record months, so record volumes, and it uh was quite stressful um just just managing managing that at every at every level. Uh since then we've stapped up and we're you know being putting in more shifts and you know things have definitely moderated where we're we're back in line with what I would say is more more comfortable lead times. Uh certain things are shipping pretty quick, but because of the breadth of what we produce, uh it could be um you know could have some variation. Gold, gold is really picked back up again in terms of you know a quicker, a much quicker pace. Silver, uh silver, just the sheer demand for that um really internationally has really really grown. And I think you know, you take markets like Japan, Korea, and and what my sense is is that metal's being sucked out of those those those nations, and I'm I'm it feels like the refineries there because they're LBMA good delivery, they're not making the retail sizes. So we're definitely seeing the wholesalers in some of those markets. Um, you know, the request for kilobars uh and and other in other shapes sizes uh is is been quite uh I'd say the busiest in probably more than 10, 10 to maybe almost 15 years. And some of these some of these wholesalers we've we have worked with for you know well more than a decade. So we definitely have some good data uh to reflect upon.

SPEAKER_02

Interesting on you know the silver side. Now, public data, I mean I'm looking at it, but a tech company called Hyperscale Data purchased 10,000 ounces of physical silver from you for their corporate treasury. I mean, are you uh we got to get into that a little bit here, uh Josh. But are you seeing a pipeline of other corporations, family offices kind of quietly trying to do the same with physical white metal? Is this a one-off or or is it a category forming?

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, and you take you take someone like that. I think they've publicly announced they're they're probably looking to put, I believe, a hundred million into silver and a hundred million in into gold, uh, is what they're and they're they're looking at other metals as well. I believe that's what they've publicly stated. Um I would say, you know, as a company, they're they're involved in AI robotics, and and uh I think if you kind of look at strategic metals, you can put them on your balance sheets. You can't own them as treasury assets. Um, they're probably not the first uh that that are out there. There's a lot of people looking at looking at metals. There's interesting tax strategies. Now I'm not an accountant, uh, but there are some interesting tax strategies that a lot of people are are are working with it. Um then people also realize that that precious metals, gold in particular, is one of the easiest assets to collateralize. So if you want to lend, we have a host of banks uh that that work out of our our facility that are able to lend at some of the most attractive you know rates out there on your physical holding. So holding holding an asset that potentially can appreciate over time, uh, and and it just becomes a strategic treasury asset. So I I see this growing. And you know, I I've spent time with a lot of other public companies just just recently. They're kind of trying to wrap their heads around you know what what is physical gold? Yeah, how does it work within the context of their enterprise? And I think once their tax team kind of looks at um differ different strategies, it becomes pretty interesting. This is not going to stop. This is going to grow. Uh, there's no doubt that you know, I think Michael Saylor with Bitcoin showed a different an interesting strategy of putting different things on his balance sheets as a healthcare software company. Obviously, he went even a step further and took debt out. Um, but I see this as a definitely a growing trend.

SPEAKER_02

So it's not, you know, micro strategy for silver yet. I mean, without naming names, what structure are they kind of asking about? Is it direct ownership, valted allocated metal, is it lending against metal? You talked a little bit about tax-efficient product designs.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, so putting yeah, allocated store storage where they get they get their own serial numbers, it's audited every quarter, and who knows what they're wanting to do with it later. So I I think as they as they hold these assets, it's no different than holding, you can hold you while you can hold inventory depending on what industry you're in, you can also hold a basket of currencies. And a lot of these corporations are starting to look at precious metals. You know, gold is a a form of a currency. It's it's deemed by the IRS as a commodity, and for you attractive, uh focused people on the IRS, um, there is some strategic uh methodologies to you know depreciation strategies and whatnot on various holdings. And so I think they're they're looking at owning the physical metal and just building that balance sheet. I think a company like hyperscale, they publish their Bitcoin holdings every week. I'm thinking I'm thinking they've got something like maybe $55 million worth it right now of Bitcoin and they're wanting to boost that. Uh, most likely they're going to be announcing how much gold and silver they're holding each and every week. So this is a different strategy, I think, that other public companies are doing. Uh, you know, Jeremy, if you remember when Tesla amended their SEC bylaws, you know, for Bitcoin, they also amended it for gold bullion. So that's the physical metal. So they're not looking to get away from paper products. Now we have not seen Tesla purchase physical gold uh as of this juncture, but they did amend their bylaws. So I think they put the plumbing in in the event of uh of them wanting to own physical gold. We've seen Palantir own physical uh gold as well. So, you know, uh this is this is probably not gonna stop, especially as we're facing uncertainty, great distrust amongst nations, governments, banking. Um it probably makes sense in most most portfolios to to have an allocation.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, it's been wild to watch. Uh you know, the Tesla point, I mean, it's interesting because it, like you said, it sets that plumbing. What do you think would be a trigger for a company like that to move from authorization to actual bullion purchases? Do you think it's kind of inflation? Is it banking stress? Is it accounting, tax, like I said?

SPEAKER_03

Probably a mix of everything. And then, you know, what I'm finding is there's a board, you know, and I sit on other other other companies as uh you know board members, and there's different strategies that with each company. And when you do something kind of outside the norm, obviously that's got to go through board approval. And and so I think as people kind of look at there's different reasons. We done we definitely saw you know a few years ago where there was you know a lot of with Silicon Valley Bank, you know, was that gonna roll into to other banking issues? And that's when everyone says, hey, do we have a banking relationship with a too big to fail? And so you saw you know companies scramble to reallocate, you know, overnight, you know, overnight repo markets for their cash. Um, and and so I think there's definitely a strategy of saying, you know what, how do we look at this for insurance? What can we do with it? You know, gold is outperforming bonds. Why it doesn't create a yield on a day-to-day basis like bonds. Uh, when it's outperforming at this level, you know, people really are, you know, it may not matter as much. And that's where I think these companies are looking at it. You know, there's probably too much. Well, these companies have had a lot of real estate as well. And they're looking to diversify away from real estate. Obviously, the cap rates aren't looking as good. Uh, you're you're seeing you know, news out of uh the city of New York. Uh, you know, they're just putting in new rent controls and new things. So, you know, real estate's gonna get a little tricky as we go forward uh in this economy.

SPEAKER_02

Now, listen, I mean, here's a fact that deserves more attention than I think it's received. I mean, Wyoming passed a law requiring state gold reserves by uh by 2026. Uh the state quietly completed that $10 million gold purchase in December. 2,300 ounces, no press release, right? I mean, confirmed in January legislative hearings. Um, that gold is now sitting in your vault in Casper. Not JP Morgan, not a federal facility, but your vault. Then Wells Fargo, one of America's four largest banks, also chooses Wyoming Reserve for institutional precious metal storage. A state government and a major commercial bank both moved metal away from you know the New York-centered system and into Wyoming. What is actually happening there?

SPEAKER_03

Decentralization of physical assets. So we're we're seeing that, we're seeing that at the central bank level, they're they're moving assets to back to their countries, they're they're repatriating um things, things back. I think the property rights in Wyoming, the fact that we're not, a lot of people don't even know where where it is on a map quite quite quickly. And you know, I think we offer just from a security standpoint, we're a foreign trade zone. Um we're we're I we're one of the only, I believe that's also federally audited uh by U.S. Customs. So it it provides just, I think, a diversification of their assets for their customers. So you take a bank like Wells Fargo, they they can offer vaulting at at a Brinks facility, uh, or they're not going to use JP Morgan as a competitor, but they'll offer you know a Brinks facility in New York, and they you leave it to the customer to say, where do you want it stored? Uh and then our vault, you know, especially for the high net worth people, it is while we're not open to the public for tours, uh, if you are a client, a customer holding here, you can bring your family here and and come and come and look at it and touch it. And and I think that's a service that you can't easily audit, you can't easily see things in in some of the vaults in New York, for example. So it was, I would say that was kind of a David vs. Goliath, you know, type type win. Uh and I all we were in the Wall Street Journal uh front page just just just over a month ago, and uh I'm not gonna put words in their mouth, but uh the treasurer of Wyoming was quoted, Kurt Meyer, talking about they're looking at going to a percentage allocation for gold holdings. And you take a state of Wyoming, they've got $50 billion in liquid assets.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03

So I'll let you, I'm not gonna put words into their mouth of what they may be thinking. Um, but you know, you could start to see U.S. states such as Wyoming kind of rival gold purchasing of what the European nations are doing in the in the coming future. I think that's something to definitely watch.

SPEAKER_02

You know, I've been talking to a couple of sources. Uh JP Morgan, some of these sound money guys, you know and the there was this bipartisan silver act that was introduced this week that would kind of require exchange to approved metal depositories across all four U.S. time zones. Now, right now, virtually every facility approved by regulators to store gold and silver for futures delivery is in the New York region. I mean, a system that has been in place for decades. You're in Wyoming, uh, the number one sound money kind of state, people say. I mean, no tax on gold and silver, no corporate income tax, foreign trade zone access. If the Silver Act passes, how does the competitive landscape for physical metals custody change?

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, I think, well, I kind of have I sit on both sides of the fence on this act. I I think there's a lot of good, uh, good to happen that could happen with this. It might benefit my companies tremendously should it pass. At the same time, I'm also a little hesitant about the government telling a private enterprise what to do. So that's more my constitutional core of how this goes. Even if, even if you know it's a private market, could another exchange be created? Absolutely. Obviously, it's it's hard, but we're watching New York Stock Exchange has a challenge on the Texas Stock Exchange. So, you know, one concern I would have with vaults, but something could be possible is that vaults on one coast versus another coast have different shipping rates depending on where you're moving it to. Uh, you know, if you're moving something from LA to Florida uh versus New York to Florida, obviously, you know, the LA one is gonna be slightly more expensive. So, you know, I think if we kind of look at it, you know, there definitely could be something there. Uh, I but I also think what this proves is that we have issues uh for critical minerals. And the U.S. government is is obviously in in in physically invested to, and I believe it's gonna be to the tune of 30. Oh gosh. I mean, uh it's in the, I don't even want to say the number, but it's in the mega billions of dollars that they're gonna allocate physical metal to. And then they're taking, you know, they're taking equity ownership in mines, and then, you know, the the smelter, uh, the one in Tennessee was announced, a $2 billion investment from the Department of War. So there's absolutely no doubt, um, and you just look at what the Strait of Hermuz has shown, is is that a lot of nations have some infrastructure and logistics concerns if you can't bring in your materials. So definitely risk management planning in advance is is quite wise, and and this is just gonna just gonna continue to grow.

SPEAKER_02

I mean, are are other states actively kind of calling Scottsdale Mint or Wyoming Reserve about replicating what Wyoming did? I mean, how many of those conversations are happening? And and can you name any of them?

SPEAKER_03

I I won't name any uh due to, and a lot of times we get we do get contacted by different legislatures from from different from different states. I think, you know, sometimes sometimes the people have to tell the state what to do, even though they may have it in their bylaws that they can't they can buy gold. But sometimes you have to pass an act and and push it through the House and the Senate and to get the governor to sign it. Uh and it failed in Wyoming. Uh, you know, and I testified, you know, going back a few years ago, and and it and it failed. And so uh, but it finally did it did pass, and I I think you know it it can be pretty big. Uh, I know like the state of Texas, for example, they they built their own depository, so they're managing their own gold there there in Texas, but they're actually utilizing um, and I think you you were the show that broke it. Um, the state of Texas is uh and I think they're gonna be out here uh in about six weeks. Um uh the state of Texas is is issuing their own uh gold and silver coins with the state seal on it. So, you know, this is just going to grow. I think there's other states we're getting contacted at the county level, you know, counties are saying, hey, we we we're interested in holding gold. So, you know, a lot of that has to do with the regs, you know, at the state level, do they allow, you know, counties to hold? I I think this goes back to the tune of we're all under-allocated to the metal, and the whole world is. And and we were not allowed to own gold in the United States until you know, until Nixon cut the final tie in the early 70s. So we're we're just past that 50, 55-ish year uh trial. And now it seems like people are wanting to go back to it and put and put the put physical metal back on the balance sheet. And I think again, Basel III Accord of banking regs, uh, of of it shows that uh you know, physical gold ownership is 100% risk-free on a bank's balance sheet versus a paper product.

SPEAKER_02

Well, I mean, speaking of which, uh in the last 30 days, governments around the world have done two things simultaneously that appear to kind of contradict each other. I mean, on one hand, they've restricted public access to bullion. India banned certain silver bar imports after spending $12 billion on silver last fiscal year. I mean, Malaysia added a 10% customs duty on bullion. Ghana is now forcing its largest gold mines to hand 30% of their output directly to their central bank. And then on the other hand, I mean, they have expanded state control of the physical supply chain. France's state-owned Paris Mint launched its first government gold coin since World War I. Um, Wyoming built that state gold reserve vaulted outside of the banking system. You just talked about Texas, what happened there. And then this morning, the Bank of International Settlements, the BIS, um, the institution that kind of coordinates the central the world's central banks, moved to live transacting testing of a new global settlement system. I mean, you get the Federal Reserve, the Central European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, MasterCard Visa, they're all inside it. I mean, which is pretty remarkable. Um it seems like a two-track strategy. Walk us through what you think governments are actually doing.

SPEAKER_03

Well, it's the future of finance. And at the same time, it affects capital, uh, capital movement within within a country. So you take someone like India, who typically has done a lot of capital control, especially around their wedding season. So the Indian culture is dowries. So they buy a lot of gold and and you know it's used as a wealth uh component. So they will often change their taxation rules to kind of curb you know how much how much you know how much of their currency is floating and how much is actually tied up in the metal. So they want their economy to kind of function. Um, I also find too, governments don't want competitors. And so silver doesn't make the best money because it's being consumed at an industrial level. So if you think, you know, from solar to military to technology, whereas gold, gold isn't as much uh used in industry, except that central banks are put in on their balance sheet. So there's no doubt uh they may try to slow uh down purchasing of certain metals. That's why I feel blessed. You know, who knows what's gonna happen in the United States, but my facility here in Wyoming as a foreign trade zone, I can import precious metals in the event there were to be a tariff, and it could be held here for investors forever without a tariff, uh, or it can be manufactured to ship back out. So, you know, I do think the complexity that we're seeing, you know, the challenges, you know, of what's happening around tax with these precious metals is because people want them and governments may or may not want as much to flow uh in into those assets at this time.

SPEAKER_02

So that's interesting because I mean it feels like uh there's a coordinated logic here, you know, cool the public market to manage inflation optics and kind of currency pressures you just talked about, while simultaneously consolidating state level control of of physical supply chains. Or is each country just arriving at the same place independently?

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, and and then you take you take other ones that so. A lot of governments, and we we even saw this under Biden. He was talking about putting an extra taxation on hard rock mining. So this is just a couple years ago in the United States. So I think what we will see, unfortunately, and this is this is my personal take of why often mining companies underperform just the basic metal, is because the geopolitical risk. So if imagine you take a country like an African nation where their economy is struggling, especially right now with what's going on, you can imagine uh there's going to be fertilizer issues and whatnot. And then you've got some mining company just raking in the cash flow, they're going to threaten to nationalize. And if they don't nationalize, they say, well, then we we want this tax rate to go up a lot. So, and that's what even Biden was looking at doing in the United States is raising taxes. So they can basically do nationalization through taxation, so which is just another form of theft in theory. Uh so I think this is what we're up, what we're up against. Obviously, you can't always prepare for it, but that's why I think being in the right jurisdiction with the best property rights is is paramount, and and and there's no doubt that nations are are moving quickly. And I think that's going to be a trend that we're not going to see stop uh anytime soon.

SPEAKER_02

I want to go back to India just for a second because I mean, obviously, they spent a record $12 billion on silver imports last fiscal year. April imports alone jumped 157% year over year. Then the government banned 99.9% pure silver bar imports with immediate effect. I mean, most analysts read that as very bearish, major demand source removed. Uh, what's your read? And and when a country that size restricts imports, does the metal actually disappear from global demand or does it just simply re-root?

SPEAKER_03

Well, it definitely feels like there's a little bit of pressure building between China and India right now as it relates to silver, but that stems with what started with U.S. Latin American pressure, meaning a lot of that refining material, whether that be concentrate or Dora, that's flowing from the mines, it's getting redirected through mercantile banking. So, on behalf of governments, banks are purchasing metal, they're moving it, they're financing it. And my personal take is why a lot of the Western refineries are so backed up. One of the big reasons is they've been moving metal. So China's not getting maybe as much of their raw material in. Um, so you probably saw the month of March, which is the last reported month, the uh of silver was the greatest import in China uh for China in 20 plus years. And so I think they're they're trying to secure their manufacturing base. So whether that's whether that's solar panels, and it's kind of funny, then news came out um that was the opposite, saying, Oh, they're using less solar, but you just imported the most in 20 years. So I kind of feel like this might be a little bit of a deflection game of what's actually happening out there. Silver is being consumed heavily with AI uh for computer chips, and you know, uh companies like Tesla have to have to have it in their battery systems. So Samsung is out there buying interests in you know in mines uh for their solid state battery. So I think there, you know, as we look at this, it just it just seems like one action by one country uh you know going after the material and then bring it in. Potentially, we know the U.S. government has said they're they're buying the material and they have price floors in. So now you've got other other countries maybe trying to curb you know how much is actually civilians or you know, their citizens actually competing with government uh to buy it. Because they they really don't want people to buy something and stick it in their closet or stick it in the vault because it doesn't add any economic activity. So this is why you don't see precious metals really being promoted, uh, you know, really outside of you know kind of the traditional retail levels, IRA type uh type programs. Um and just just wait till people find out uh about uh you know rare earth minerals and and some of the other smaller metals that are even, you know, I think the the potential disruption uh that's coming in in really all sorts of asset classes within the precious metals and and metal space uh is gonna be something to behold.

SPEAKER_02

I want to just go back to silver there for a second. I mean, we keep bringing it up. Obviously, we see that India-China kind of struggle. Now, silver's down more than 3% today, but the the silver community has been hearing shortage warnings for years, and you actually make the products and source the metal. So let's do kind of a hard reality check. I mean, not charts, not forecasts. What's actually happening in the supply chain right now?

SPEAKER_03

Well, here's what it feels like. There, like there's plenty of metal in the United States. There's so much metal here that a lot has actually left for other locations. And it would look like, based on you know, some of the export import um data, that a lot has left and done a stop in in Europe or London, and then it and then it jumps to China. So we definitely have seen that. So, you know, raw material supply, we've not had a shortage. There's plenty plenty of material in the United States, but we are seeing a premium for what's called good delivery product. So this is stuff that that you would maybe ship off to London or you would ship off to another market, you know, let's say in Singapore, for example, if it's LBMA, London Bullying Market Association, good delivery. The consumer in the United States doesn't care about it at all in terms of that type of product. But we're seeing that that those types of labels have a slight premium to the tune I would say it's jumped probably 20 to 40 cents just in the last few weeks for that raw material above its normal price. And whereas, you know, but there's there's plenty, there's plenty of what I would call non-LBMA silver that's still great quality here in the United States. Um, that's that's you know coming through the refineries. So it's to me, it feels like it's a shortage in certain markets, and and it's just everything's just flowing and moving. So the logistics companies continue to be incredibly busy.

SPEAKER_02

Interesting. So it's not no silver, it's it's silver leaving the U.S. stopping and letting ending up in China. That story is is flow. It doesn't seem like it's supply.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, so it's flowing, but you know, we are running a deficit. And so you saw there was just a news report out today that that you know companies are looking, solar companies are looking at uh trying to get away from silver. Silver is obviously used as as you know the reflective material. The problem that they're I I don't think they they want to tell is what's the difference in the efficiency rate of these solar panels? That's gonna be the trick. So can they pass on that new price of where silver is here in the 70s per ounce? Uh, or or are they not are they able to go to let's say something that's more copper driven, you know, that's a smaller price per ounce. Um, and but does that efficiency rate change with our customers? So I think that's something to watch, but uh it seems like to me with investment demand in China, I mean their citizens are buying physical metal. You've seen you know both both the the gold malls, uh, but they're clamoring for silver. Uh, we're seeing this grow. Obviously, in India, we're seeing this in other markets like Malaysia, where they may not have been as big a buyer of silver, even at a lower price. I kind of feel like the higher price of silver goes, it starts to feel a little more precious. So, you know, we're seeing that even in the States where you know people are not purchasing copper. So it's kind of like, hey, gold's going way up, so is silver, and hey, let's, let's, let's, let's buy copper. It's on sale. So it's it's it's I think it's a it's a constant driver. This is gonna be a multi-year, you know, multi-year thing to kind of watch. This is not to me, it's not necessarily month-to-month. Obviously, we can see some price explosions. That's what we saw. Um, you know, too many, if you have too many buyers or too many sellers in the in a small window, that market can definitely move. And we definitely saw that, you know, kind of Christmas through January, end of January, early February. Uh, we saw you know, prices maybe get up get too far ahead of itself.

SPEAKER_02

You you and I talked about this actually a couple times ago on the show. I mean, you you previously mentioned that silver is being moved by air freight across the Atlantic. Air obviously is expensive. When physical metal moves by plane rather than ship, what is the market telling us? And is that still happening?

SPEAKER_03

Yes. So, and it's a mechanism of the finance cost. So if you've got to put something on a boat, let's say it takes five weeks versus air, which is a couple days, to just, and really it's just the unload load process. It's the slowest part. It really kind of turns down, it turns into, you know, how quickly, uh, you know, how much do I have to finance, you know, for for if it's a bank, a trading house, and then how quickly, you know, if I can fly it, air it, I I can, I can redo the next one quicker. And so when when those barbs are in place, uh that material is just moving from continent to continent, exchange to exchange, and the exchanges are really competing. The big winners in all this are the banks. So they had probably an amazing 2026, I could probably say the trade desk. So anytime you know they're they're able to find ways of you know utilizing their assets, own the metal, move the metal, and and they can clip the ticket on it, they're gonna absolutely do it.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. Hey, you posted on X Monday morning. I thought it was quite funny. Uh, responding to a headline warning that gold still faces pressure from elevated interest rates, your response was uh, and I quote this directly, uh, what analysts? You could literally replace the word uh economy instead of gold, and it would be more accurate. So just talk to me a little bit here, Josh, about what is the mainstream getting wrong right now?

SPEAKER_03

Uh that I would say gold is not a trade, it's a new paradigm. And that's that's what that's what they're missing. And then analysts are trying to, you know, I get it. You're trying to figure out why it's moving up or down on a given day. Uh and there can be a host of reasons, but they're really kind of looking at this, they're they're really missing the force for the trees, and and and uh uh and I think as as you look at, you know, the banks are moving their predictions up, then they move them down. But really, when we sit back and say, well, how how accurate have some of these firms been? And normally they're very conservative with their with their numbers. Uh, and we just kind of look at the trend of what's going on. Nations are, you know, globalism is breaking down. So you absolutely have to fortify um your supply chain. And Trump has kind of been warning, you know, companies, private enterprise, uh publicly traded companies, get your supply chains in in order and basically diversify away from China. I mean, if anything can look at you know this tariff component, the one thing that we should be learning is hey, if you can do something and diversify, and if you can do it in the United States and figure that, figure that out, that that you might be in a better situation than your competitors longer term.

SPEAKER_02

The FTIC, uh, the federal agency that issue insures um U.S. bank deposits, for those that don't know, I mean, they reported this morning that unrealized losses at U.S. banks rose 6% in one quarter to $325 billion. Now, for viewers who may not know, obviously unrealized losses are paper losses on bonds and securities a bank holds that have lost value as interest rates continue to rose, they don't really cause an immediate crisis, but they reduce a bank's financial cushion. I mean, the the 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank was triggered by exactly this. And most people are not connecting that number to precious metals, should they be?

SPEAKER_03

You know, probably long-term. I think we could you could look at all these as flashpoints in in the financial system. You know, in one sense, it totally makes sense for you know the stock market just to keep going up. We're inflating. Um if a company has assets behind it, if you just own it and this thing just keeps going. At the same time, the valuations may not make historical sense. And so, you know, what is a company worth these days? What is real estate worth these days? Um, and and in moments like you know, when when banks have issues, people aren't looking to make money, they're looking to not lose money. And so that's that becomes more of a defensive position. And so I think right now, you know, people are looking at you know a lot of commodities as more of a defensive positioning. Um and and and you know, whereas sometimes, you know, let's say even just a few months ago it was offense. People are like, oh my gosh, silver's moving. Uh it's it's the alpha trade. It's frankly, it's the alpha trade at you know, gold and silver for the decade. And so it it has both offensive and defensive uh components. And so depending on your portfolio, you know, you had Morgan Stanley last fall put out a 60-20-20, 20% gold. You know, I think that was in the fall. Uh most, I'd say most portfolios are not don't even have 5%. So, you know, it depending on how you're looking at your portfolio, where you are in life, what you're looking to do, uh, you know, if you just want to keep holding U.S. Treasuries um forever, uh, you know, I think I think you might want to diversify out. And that's what we're seeing, you know, right now with other governments.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, yeah. Well said. And you kind of pointed this out a little bit there, just talking about the T bills and what have you. But let's make this useful for people watching, kind of short answers, practical one or two sentences. I mean, for someone who owns zero physical medals today, what is their right first move? And what is the right starting size?

SPEAKER_03

Probably the dollar cost average in, you know, you know, obviously I'm in, I'm in this space, but there there are there have been years over the last two decades, I would say, you know, to to to my friends, or I, you know, it wasn't a great purchase. Let's say during, I'd say the majority of Trump's first term, at that moment, real estate was a much better performer, and that was a great place to be. Obviously, then COVID came and changed uh changed everything. So had you purchased at that time, uh, you're doing quite well at this juncture. But I think it's a it's a it's really a diversification, you know, and and and I think I've said on your on your show before, you know, do what some of the biggest giants are doing. Follow in the footsteps of those guys. And and so if central banks are putting larger allocations to physical gold, and that trend is not going to stop. What an amazing asset to own uh during during this time. And and these are groups that are literally printing fiat out of thin air and buying that same asset that you can hold. And so that's kind of a nice place to be, you know, to kind of weather the storm of this decade, whatever this financial monetary reset is going to end up looking like.

SPEAKER_02

I was talking to a friend that I hadn't spoken to in a while, and they were very heavily allocated. I was surprised. They've been watching the show, they've been kind of planning. But the question for that person, I mean, what is the single most expensive mistake they're likely kind of making right now?

SPEAKER_03

That's a great, that's a great question. I I think I would say the most, and I I I've had a lot of people when they ask my my personal opinion, and I would say a lot of times they they don't they don't make a move because they think it's gone up too much. And here we are in 2027, you know, we look back, I mean, this was like two, three years ago. And so I think, you know, and that's where, you know, thinking that the move, you know, it's it's it's over, you know, again, I would say what what makes sense in the financial system? And it's only, I would say, as we go longer term, that volatility is gonna rise, both up and down. And I think we're we're we're seeing that right right now, you know, on the downside from from the peak of where where we were at just you know just a couple months ago. So I think it's just probably not proper allocation or or not paying attention to to what truly is happening. So if you feel like you trust you know your politicians in whatever country you're in, um, you know, maybe gold isn't for you. But if if you have some distrust about what's going on in the world, if the news doesn't really make a whole lot of sense uh for you, and I think I think it's a a it is the asset class to own this decade.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, in in storage, Josh, too. I mean, home safe, private vault, state depository, Wyoming reserve, off share or a mix. I mean, walk us through how you actually think about that decision for a retail investor.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, I'm I'm a big fan of, hey, you can have some at home. You know, I think I think you know, have some at home, and and it's amazing how much people have in their home. But you know, at what point is it too much that it's a security risk for your family? So for example, I have I have nothing at home. So uh for obvious reasons. Um, but you know, if someone walks into your your house and says, hey, give me all your gold, and they have a gun to your family member's head, you're gonna give it all over, and it's not insured. And so safety deposit box in a bank has no insurance. And I at least in the United States government can come in and just look through anything at any time without a subpoena. So if you take if you take a physical vault, such as one like one that I have and run, uh, the only way you can uh have a someone come in is with a subpoena. It's fully insured. You can take a loan against it because it's in the right, it's in the right location. And so I think especially as you get into the you know six in in well into the seven figures, that's where it starts to you know make more sense, you know, for someone to kind of diversify their holdings. Yeah, again, you can still have some at home. You know, the old adage of, you know, and I'm I I've got uh plenty of uh firearms myself, in in, you know, we I the joke is not the joke, but everyone talks about a bug out bag. Well, when you bug out and go to that top of the mountain, what do you do when you get there? So, you know, what what do you do with all that precious metals on you? And again, I would probably feel better having a little bit on me than not, but it's also nice to have some diversification. So we're seeing right now, Jeremy, too, a lot of a lot of international, a lot of inner, especially a lot of Europeans that are holding tradition, like in Switzerland, they're wanting some held in the in the United States. And so they're they're moving gold uh you know to the United States, they're just diversifying, you know, where where they're at. And again, the United States has incredible property rights, whereas you look at the history of Europe, they have seized assets nonstop in every just about every one of their countries. Uh they've seized their, you know, they've often, you know, the the the their paper currency is seized. So a lot of times they say, here, we're doing a new issue. So if you had if you had physical paper cash in a safety deposit box, you can't spend it anymore. And then the next problem is you have to turn, so you have a thousand euro bill and you need to turn that back in, then they're gonna say, well, where'd you get it? And then it's just gonna be a KYC AML nightmare. Uh and so I think, you know, that's that's where physical gold is really the superior play uh over assets like that.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, fascinating, man. Uh our time always goes too fast, Josh. Last question to you. I mean, just personally, because you speak to a lot of people in this industry, and as I said, you're involved in a day-to-day. I mean, a year from now, people may look back at this period and realize the real story was never really the daily gold price, right? I mean, it was kind of the restructuring of how physical metal is held and moved and settled, governments restricting public access while building state reserves, a four, you know, a big four bank choosing yours over New York. Um, we talked a little bit about the BIS building that settlement system in real time. Is that framing too dramatic or is that exactly what's happening? And most people just haven't connected the dots yet.

SPEAKER_03

I I feel like it's happening slowly and then fast at the same time. And so, you know, if we look at what was happening during, you know, let's just say the COVID event, you know, and everything that was happening within government, um, you know, what I think it's it's a little easier to kind of understand, you know, we're obviously moving to a new system. You know, there unfortunately, you know, we can even look at some of the AI, and I think while some of it is amazing technology, it's also could be incredibly concerning, ensnaring, you know, with with the wrong actors, you know, in control of all your data. Uh, and and while we can be kind of frustrated with the banks, you know, historically they've not showed shared our public our private data of where we spend our money to advertisers. And so now if we put this into the hands of a new actor who is monitoring everything, maybe a different a different outlook. And so it does feel like we're a little bit of that, you know, the frog in a boiling pot of water. You know, you know, it may not feel it coming on. And I think that that is this decade. And so we're we're somewhere in, you know, that that fifth, sixth inning. Uh, you know, my personal take is somewhere around 30, 2032, give or take, you know, could could be could be extended out a few years. Uh, it's it's tough to kind of know, but we're definitely in a zone of there's gonna be some major changes in our financial system, the way we uh the way we work, the way we communicate. Um, and so there's gonna be so many changes up ahead, and we don't know exactly what's gonna come. And I think, you know, thanks to shows like yours, yours, you got great content uh each and every day, you know, coming out. I think trying to bring different minds. I, you know, this is content that you're not gonna get on a normal uh normal podcast or normal TV media for sure.

SPEAKER_02

Amen, man. Thanks for saying it. Uh, trust, diversification, those are the two that I wrote down this morning uh for some of these headlines. All right, CEO of Scottsdale Mint, Josh Fair joining us now, and the Y Wyoming Reserve uh over in Casper. Thanks for your time. Thanks for the insights. Uh, you find out anything, you you text me.

SPEAKER_03

Always. All right. Uh thanks to your team. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02

Appreciate it. All right, gold around 4,400 this morning, down roughly 2%. Silver in the mid-74 is down three. Platinum around 1900, down 2%. Now, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, will drop tomorrow morning. Now, economists expect it coming in at about 3.8% year over year for April, up about three points, uh, 3.5 from March. Now, the Fed's target is 2%. That is a number that we'll be watching because it will move markets. I'm Jeremy Saffron. Thanks for watching Kitco News. We'll see you next time.

SPEAKER_01

Kitco News in Focus with Jeremy Saffron.

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