Silver Breaks $80 as Gold Eyes $6,000, Gary Wagner Charts the Levels

Gold is eyeing a massive run to $6,000, and silver just broke out past $80. Gary Wagner reveals the exact charts driving the precious metals bull market and maps the key technical levels you need to watch.

Despite a hotter-than-expected U.S. jobs report reinforcing the Federal Reserve's "higher-for-longer" rate stance, the precious metals sector is accelerating. Gary Wagner, Editor of The Gold Forecast, joins Kitco News Anchor Jeremy Szafron for a special technical presentation detailing the Elliott Wave structure of gold and the mathematical case for a $6,000 target by year-end.

They also break down the next resistance levels for silver—including a potential run to $90—and analyze what the U.S. Dollar (DXY) and GDX miners are signaling for the long-term rally.

Recorded May 8 2026

Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: @JeremySzafron (https://x.com/JeremySzafron)
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Gold Surges Despite Jobs Data
01:32 - Elliott Wave Bull Market Setup
04:18 - Three Rally Legs Get Steeper
08:58 - Blow Off Top And ABC Correction
10:12 - Resetting The Count Wave 1-3
14:43 - Why 6000 Gold Is Plausible
15:47 - Geopolitics And The Paradigm Shift
17:57 - Elliott Wave Psychology Explained
20:15 - Dollar Index DXY Versus Gold
22:51 - Silver Breakout And 90 Target
26:30 - Miners GDX Confirmation Check
28:12 - Key Levels Invalidation

#Gold #Silver #GaryWagner #KitcoNews #Investing
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Transcript

SPEAKER_03 0:00

Kitco News, Chart This with Gary Wagner.

SPEAKER_01 0:05

Welcome back to Chart This. I'm Jeremy Staffrin. Gold and Silver. Catching a strong bid today, but Gary Wagner says that the bigger story is not the latest move on the tape. Gary has a special presentation looking at the last couple of years in gold and the structure of this bull market and why the chart may be pointing to $6,000 by year end. At the same time, the setup on the macro side isn't that clean. The latest U.S. jobs report came in stronger than expected, with the economy adding 115,000 jobs in April, unemployment holding at 4.3%. Now, normally that kind of data gives the Federal Reserve more room to stay patient, and that can pressure metals, but um that's not what we're seeing in the charts today. So in this episode, we're gonna go straight to the charts. Did gold complete its correction? Is the rally part of a much bigger move? What levels confirmed that path towards 6,000? And where would the bullish thesis break down? To map it all out, of course, we're joined by the editor of the Gold Forecast, our friend Gary Wagner. Gary, welcome back to the show. Good to see you in uh in human, in human form this time.

SPEAKER_00 1:09

Thanks so much for having me. It has been a while. Jeremy, congratulations, your father, and that's huge. I I really want to put my heart out there because I know what that feels like. It's a whole new world, um, not being able to sleep for the first six months. But after you get through that, it's pure pleasure. But congrats, congrats. Thanks, man. Thanks, man. I appreciate that. Okay. We are living in interesting times. I think the last time we talked, um either we had just gone to the all-time record high or had already begun a price correction from that price point. And when I looked back at the way the rally unfolded and saw that there was a sister rally almost identical before that, and then I looked at the correction that we were having, it genuinely made me realize that the fractal nature of Elliott Wave, meaning, in essence, uh it's a theory based upon market psychology that proposes that markets don't move straight up or straight down. In a bullish scenario, you will have a motor phase with that have five total waves, one, two, three, four, five, in which one, three, and five are what we call the motive phase. They trend in the prevalent trend direction. They move in the prevalent trend direction. In between that, two and four are called the corrective waves. When those five are complete, you enter some sort of a correction. Simple format is an ABC, but you can have a compressor triangle. There's a quite a few distinctions and pattern types for how a market will correct. The important thing is once that eight-wave pattern has run its course, if the fundamentals that drove the market in that bullish manner remain intact, that basic pattern will repeat itself. And so what we're going to look at when we look at a chart is we've had this pattern complete itself twice, brings us up to the correction, and then we can extrapolate where gold could go if we see yet a third motive phase to kind of wind out this incredible historical monumental time in gold, going to these incredible new record highs.

SPEAKER_01 3:47

So, Gary, this is this is good. We're gonna put we've got that chart there, and and it was a great yeah before you and I were chatting, you were kind of explaining this, and and you had a really great kind of key point there. You're you're not just saying, you know, gold is rising, you're saying each leg has become steeper and more powerful. When you see the last rally travel almost twice the distance in roughly half the time, I mean, what does that tell you about this bull market? Explain that chart that you pulled up for us. Sure.

SPEAKER_00 4:12

Well, the chart that we're looking at really starts at the end of 2024, beginning of 2025, and you can see these three white boxes. And obviously, each box represents a leg of the rally that composes the five count. In other words, wave one, our corrective wave two, three, four, and five. Now we've talked about that before, but what I wanted to do was to lend some insight, and to do that, I've drawn a basic technical study which plots time and price, as well as the angle of the rise and the basic numbers, the outcome of each of these rallies. So this rally that started at the beginning of 2025, all the way up to middle of April, took gold from roughly $2,600 and concluded at about $3,500. So we gained, not we, gold gained over $900, and that is a net increase of about 35%. That's a tremendous move. Now, this the corrections were rather shallow. If we did a fib retracement like I have on other charts, you'd see it probably comes to the 38%, but it doesn't go down like to a 61% retracement. And the other thing that I want you to make note of is this green line, simple 50-day moving average, which in essence tells us that we have had a full-blown, bullish trend, aside from a couple of times when prices went right to but didn't remain there, didn't dip hard until the correction up here. So we complete the first wave one. Wave two typically can never be the shortest of the impulse waves, doesn't have to be the longest. And in this case, we get what's called an exaggerated fifth, so it doesn't meet that criteria. But on this one, it started mid-May, goals at 3100, and by the conclusion of the rally, middle of October, it had run to 49.94. We're rounded up to 4400. Total dollars gained per troy ounce, twelve hundred and eighty six dollars, was added to a troy ounce. And so when we look back and go, God, wasn't gold just at 2000 or 3,000? Yes, it was, and this really illustrates just how quickly um the price of gold uh accelerated because you can see that this angle is a little bit steeper than this one, corrects, and then the final one to complete the motive phase, meaning get to the fifth ways wave, that gained $1,736, a 44.61% rise. Um, it all you know that's a huge rise. And here's the interesting thing: the number of bars, this is a daily chart that it took was 63 trading days, whereas the middle one took 109 trading days, and this first one took 83 trading days. So we had really a huge compression in terms of how quickly it got there. And although you can see that each rally peaks with almost a parabolic move here, almost a parabolic move here, it's undeniable the kind of parabolic move we saw at this fifth wave as gold sitting at around 4617 and pops all the way up. This is a wick which is being covered by a line above $4,600. And you know, I remember what it was like uh middle of 2011 when we watched gold basically go be a little bit before that, a thousand, and then to break 1900. It was truly, truly as historical time, but and it doubled in price. But this is a lot more than doubling in price. Yeah, and the fact of the matter is, there's really been no signs yet that I can see where this trend has been losing steam. If anything, it's been picking up wind, it's been picking up steam. We're getting these moves happening quicker than ever. And then, of course, what goes up must come down. And so the way I've labeled it is once we hit this top, the top itself uh concluded wave five, and then this it was a brutal move down, it took two or three days. Um, and we labeled that as our A, our B, and then finally our C. And our C took us to, I think the wick came close to just about $4,100 per ounce. So considering it was at 56, and then it came down lower, it was actually below a 78% Fib retracement. So that leads us to believe, well, what's going to be next? Again, with Elliott Wave, we don't have an indication that the pivot has occurred from bearish to bullish. Um, yes, we did break below the 50-day, but that's during a correction. And you'll see when we look at where gold is now, it's within striking distance just behind below the simple 50-day moving average, which is why I've extrapolated where I think we are now. And what that is, is this I believe that we had motive wave one, three uh well, one was back there, three. This is five, this is our correction. Now we start the clock over. And when we start the clock over, I believe we most likely hit our primary first wave, and that started at $4,220 approximately, up to about $4,900. It challenged but did not break above the 50-day, and that's really what we're going to need for real confirmation that we're truly entering another sizable rally move that's going to really make up some ground. But the way I'm looking at it is this this is where we're up to. This is uh today's activity, yesterday's. So I believe that we have completed wave one, wave two, and I believe we are in wave three. Now, if wave three typically is not the shortest, it means that at minimum we're going on wave one, which is called a benchmark wave, from 4200 to 4900, so about a $700 move. So if this has that same move, 4500, I'm rounding down, uh, would take us to 5200. Right. And that would be uh a third wave, we would still have a fourth and then a fifth. And that's why I am so excited about this point in time because we had we watched miracles happen, literally, when we saw gold move up the way it did. It was not a pleasant experience going through the correction, but I think you recall I even used the words it was a needed um expenditure of energy. It had to blow off some steam. Yeah, and I was glad that it happened. I not only believed that it was upcoming, but without it, we wouldn't get the kind of smooth um wave counts, and more importantly, the smooth kinds of signals that we're getting. So this so I'm sorry, go ahead.

SPEAKER_01 12:18

No, no, no. This is good, Gary, because uh, and and I must say, over over that time, I mean, you look at this chart, it's been a privilege to kind of cover these crazy, fascinating markets with you. I mean, we've seen some some wild games. And I just want to make this clear for the viewers, because you're saying wave one's complete, wave two is either complete or very close to being complete. That sets us up for wave three. And again, in Elliott wave terms, wave three can't be the shortest impulse wave. So that means, or it would mean, that this next phase has to take gold above the prior record high for the count to remain volatile.

SPEAKER_00 12:52

Oh, you're stealing my thunder, but yes, you are correct. Okay, you're you're 100% correct because the way, and realize this is not to frame, I I'm not convinced where these will go, but we will get a conclusion that's roughly the same size as this. Then we'll have a corrective wave, and by the nature of Elliott wave itself, and this might be a little bit too exaggerated, even if it's like here, the conclusion of a fifth wave to the next motor phase fifth wave, the latter one is always going to be higher than the former one. Okay, you're always going to get a higher high on the next motor phase. If you're not, uh the Elliott Waves can we'll call it a truncated fifth or something like that, but it doesn't bode well, it doesn't really give you the kind of um knowledge of how strong and robust and different these rallies have been. And realize this is just for illustration purposes only. I'm not saying that the third wave will move here or the fourth here. I do believe that we have completed the first, if I'm incorrect, you see, each wave can be subdivided. So wave one could look like this: this is one of one, this is two of one, three of one, four of one, five of one. So you can there's a structure, and the way that we typically would do that from this daily, I'd convert it to a four-hour chart. And if I convert it to a four-hour chart, I get the wave subcount behind it. So, yeah, I truly believe that we will see gold at some point before the end of the year challenge six thousand dollars per ounce. When I look at the historical data that preceded that, let me uh just scale that in. When we look at how we got here, it doesn't seem all that unlikely to me. I mean, this has not been a meek market. We've just had new record high after new record high. We've had phenomenal rallies, we've had rallies when we expected it, we had rallies when we didn't expect it. In other words, there were quite a few paradigm shifts along the way, um, difficult to explain, but they they were there nonetheless. That gold would typically react in one way, and now it was reacting in another way to that same information. Um, and it's the paradigm shifts that have been most interesting. But what I find as one of the interesting paradigm shifts, uh paradigm shifts that we're currently witnessing, it does appear as though we're getting closer to some sort of resolution or peace. Uh, the latest talk was Trump wants a uh a 30-day truce in which they negotiate the hard points with the idea at the end of the 30 days that they come out of these negotiations with some sort of a plan to end the war. And you would think that that would maybe drive gold down tremendously harder, but yet during this whole process, and I'll just let's go blow this up. This is what we've witnessed. We've witnessed gold move from about 4200 back up to 4,800 and a very, very shallow retracement. And that's what I mean by paradigm shift. Even though the perception is that there's uh a probability, I don't know how much, but a probability that they'll resolve this issue. Um, they're certainly not going to let the Strait of Hermoose not have ships pass through it because the global economy depends on it. Apparently, what the uh U.S. military have been doing is leading these caravans with underwater drones, and they're looking for the mines or anything that uh could be unsafe for these large um tankers, and they're just plots in them through. So although Iran said they had control of it, it seems as though both countries do. You know, when Iran wants to move a shipment, it can, and when the US or European countries need to move oil, they're effective at it also, which is how it should be.

SPEAKER_01 17:23

Hey, listen, I want to get to DXY and silver. Before we do that, though, I mean, it's an important point. With with war risk, you know, we got sticky inflation, a lot of oil volatility. A lot of people would expect gold to maybe trade more defensively or even more erratically, but but you again, you're kind of saying the chart is still respecting the Alliot wave structure. I mean, you've been doing this a long time, Gary. Does that make this move even more impressive from a technical standpoint?

SPEAKER_00 17:49

I am I am always blown away, flabbergasted, that a theory and idea of a system of market moves made up of patterns that repeat themselves would have any defined correlation with the truth of any market at any time. We understand that markets move because of fundamentals, but do they really? They do, but they move on market sentiment. So it's not so much the environment that's create out there that's creating the way people feel, it's a sentiment, the internal sentiment, that drives their trading dollars. And the reason, if this is an effective technique, is what the goal of R.N. Elliott was to do was to capture the psychological profile, the market sentiment, the mindset of a trader. And the reason it has a universal quality, whether you look at a chart now or one from 20 years ago, I call it the greed factor. We always want to buy low and sell high. And to do that, when when we as traders perceive that prices got a little overbought, they're getting a little uh top-heavy, that's typically when we go in and liquidate, pull profits, or aggressive ones will go in and short the market. So it becomes kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy, but at the same time, it seems to be the normal pattern in which price moves over time in many commodities, trending commodities. Some of the commodities, such as cattle and other things, are uh work off a tight uh the uh cycle because of uh especially grains, you put them in the ground at a certain time, you you pick the crop at a certain time. So they tend to stay within a band. I look at gold or the precious metals as running more like stocks or real estate. It's a linear lineup, it's simply a matter of how long it takes to get to the next level and how much damage was done during those periods of correction. But without a doubt, it's exceedingly important to have those corrections.

SPEAKER_01 20:07

I gotta ask you, uh let's bring the dollar into this for a second, Gary, because that's another surprising part of the setup. I mean, with a stronger jobs report, the Fed in no hurry to cut, you would normally expect the dollar to have you know some more support, but gold is holding firm. The dollar has not been able to really knock this market down. Uh, what's the DXY chart telling you?

SPEAKER_00 20:27

Well, when we look at this, uh, and this is a daily chart, the DXY up towards the end of March broke 100 on the index. And realize the DXY is not looking at buying power of the dollar, it's relating to dollar strength versus uh the euro, a basket of currencies that is weighted against. And so when you take a look at the beginning of the year, it was sitting at around 95, and then over a time period, end of January up to the middle of March, so about in a month and a half, it went to 100 from 95. That means it gained 5% in terms of its strength in relationship to the euro, the corona, uh, the other currencies that make up um the index itself. And during these periods in time, we can overlay a chart, but we had gold running in tandem, except during that the one correction, and then as the dollar came down, and I'm just let me do this uh March 31st to April, and only reason I want to do this is so March 31st is right here. So as they're going down, gold is going up, so it's moving against the grain of the dollar. And uh typically when you have a scenario in which uh There's a lot of geopolitical uncertainty. The safe havens are the safe play. And the two out there are the dollar as well as gold. And so they tend to move more in tandem during those scenarios. But even though we've had the that that commonality, we have seen a diversity in the ways the dollar moved in relationship to the way gold did. As I said, this has been a period of paradigm shifts across the board and across asset classes.

SPEAKER_01 22:36

Hey, we got to talk about silver because it's also been a standout in this market, as on X today. A lot of people gossiping about, I mean, it's broke above $80 an ounce. It's outperforming gold. Now the gold-silver ratio has compressed towards 58 to 1. But I'm curious, I mean, does does silver's leadership support your bullish gold thesis? Or is silver kind of running its own race here?

SPEAKER_00 22:59

They're both running in tandem. They're both running strong. They're both making all-time record highs. What I'm most impressed about silver is that this one area here, beginning at the end of October 2025, silver's at 44. And it has a single rally that concludes at about $1.20 plus per troy ounce. And then it sells off tremendously, pretty much a 78% retracement. And then it becomes kind of range-bound. This is the way the correction unfolded. I'm trying to determine if we are out of the correction because you can derive a classic A, B, and C. Is this a wave one? Is this a wave two? It's possible. It's a different looking chart because of we had less legs of rallies. When we compared this to gold, we would have had two boxes, a rally correction, a rally. This all happened at once. So it proves the thesis that myself, along with many other technicians, adamantly believe in that is silver tends to be twice or extremely volatile when compared to gold. When they run to the upside, silver tends to outproduce gold in terms of percentage gains. That's true here. And on the way down, it tends to outperform gold in terms of percentage drawdowns. It's the candle birthing burning at both ends, burning twice as bright for half as long. And that still remains today.

SPEAKER_01 24:39

Yeah, interesting. I mean, a lot of a lot of traders kind of looking at that low 80s as the next battleground. If silver breaks through 83, does 90 come into view, or is that kind of getting ahead of the chart here?

SPEAKER_00 24:52

Well it definitely comes into view. If we take a look at right after this correction, the move back up, which is a lower high, comes in at 97. And then the low that follows it is a basically a double bottom here or here. It's a little bit below that. And then the next high, so we had high, lower high, lower high. When we look at lows, we go low, higher low, lower low, higher low. And so this is still working itself out. If this is a wave three, I'm going to say that we there's a there's a high probability that we've completed the sell-off. The damage that was done was done. Answer your uh question directly. 90s, if it continues to run to the upside, 90 is the place to look at right there. This top came in at 90. It's at 81. You know, a year ago, you if you would have said, well, a $9 move in silver, I mean, that will take forever. We've seen that happen in days this year. So that paradigm has shifted too. We it's nothing for silver when it's running hot to move in uh in decimals uh of $5, $10 on a daily basis.

SPEAKER_01 26:14

Yeah, well said, Gary. Uh Lisa, we're we're running short on time, but quickly I want to get you on the end here on the miners. I mean, gold sitting above $4,700 on spot, silver above $80. Uh, I know you have a GDX chart. I mean, are miners kind of confirming the metals move or are they still lagging?

SPEAKER_00 26:30

With oil dropping sharply and the dollar softening and the fact that gold has rallied, because the gold miners have uh different sets of costs to get the material out of the ground and they have a high operating cost, you need the kind of markets we're witnessing now where you have these tremendous moves in the price of gold to compensate for whatever their operating expenses are. And that's why GDX is doing so well here. I mean, I'm assuming these are all-time record levels, and I know that my clients uh we don't really address GDX, but I get a lot of questions about it. If you look back to see what it was doing, and I'll just pull it back as far as say 2016, you get some moves, but for the most part, it's very steady, it tends to pop up. It's nothing like what we're witnessing here, where it starts at $35 and then goes to $116. This is a uh market that's trading with it in a range-bound um trading range that all shifted about March of 2024 and accelerated in December of last year.

SPEAKER_01 27:49

Hey, uh Gary, let's leave the viewers this time around with a little bit of a map. I mean, if if your $6,000 gold target is going to play out by year-end, what are kind of a few levels maybe that matter most right now that you're watching very, very closely for? You know, it could be support, breakout confirmation, or even invalidation.

SPEAKER_00 28:09

Well, I'll look at everything. Uh the first thing is the once we can identify the correction is completed, this first rally is a wave one. Most importantly, it's called a benchmark wave, meaning we don't have hard figures to ascertain how high it will move because it's a first out of five. But once this is in place, we can throw out some sort of prediction as to where the correction could go. And let me see if I can just put that up. So all I'm doing is basically a fib retracement. So the correction itself came in just above a 61% retracement. So given that fact, let's say that this is the conclusion at 4537. We know that wave one moved approximately $700. We will then look at, well, where would that take gold if in fact it moves the same distance from this starting point? $4,500, add $700 to that, and you get $5,200. And so that's how we would go ahead and analyze it. Then for a wave four, typically you get one shallow and one deep. If that's a deep, the shallow one might be only a 23% correction. And then when you go into a fifth wave, because the strategy calls for it actually trading above the former all-time record high, the last fifth wave, we have a way to uh look at where it possibly could go. Now, the big caveat to that is this is based on market sentiment. And if market sentiment does a 180, a complete 180, where it moves from a bearish scenario, a bullish scenario to a bearish scenario, you're not going to hit those numbers. And the way you would get technical confirmation is let's say in wave two, if this just kept going down and broke below 4200, that violates a bull count, and that means we've probably seen a pivot also breaking through different moving averages. Um, the same with any of the corrective waves, they cannot go into like wave four can't go into two, two can't go can't go below one. Um and so those are the kinds of things that we look at as potential for what kind of structure we're going to find.

SPEAKER_01 30:39

Right, right.

SPEAKER_00 30:40

But I mean, all in all, regardless of how this plays out, when you look at that, yeah, when you look at what's what's happened in gold, you see why uh uh analysts such as myself, uh I wouldn't know an analyst who isn't blown away with this kind of movement in this timeline. Uh, granted, it's had some deep corrections, specifically this last one, but those were needed, and it truly represents what a historical point we're living in when it comes to those who believe that gold as an asset has got tremendous amounts of room uh to be able to re-evalue, get revalued at a higher level. And we are certainly seeing that in this year, beginning of last, and I believe through the end of this year.

SPEAKER_01 31:36

All right. Well, listen, uh, over those years, we've been in you've been incredibly accurate, sir. So we appreciate this. And uh obviously we're taping on a Friday, we're going into the weekend for viewers. I do want to say that we just got some breaking news over the wire. President Trump said that there will be a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend, as well as a prisoner swap. Um, these are the types of flows you're talking about, you know, when it comes to war, what can happen geopolitically, where that volatility can go. So we'll continue to watch this, Gary. Uh I before I let you go, obviously, you know, six thousand dollar gold, it's it's a great call, and a lot of viewers are gonna want to follow these levels more closely, especially with the kind of volatility we're seeing in both of the medals right now. Tell people where they can find your work and what you're tracking for subscribers right now.

SPEAKER_00 32:19

Well, yeah, for those that are interested in uh hearing what I have to say more on it a couple of times a week or day to day, we do videos. You want to sign up as a premium member, go to our website, thegoldforecast.com. There'll be a coupon box that if you type KitCo, when it tallies it up, it will give you a 30% discount. We want you to be able to enjoy and have actionable knowledge that helps make your decision process easier, hopefully makes you money. I can't ever guarantee that. But my hope is that it's actionable information, but get it at the best possible price. I think we've only done this once or twice with KitCo. Type KitCo in the coupon box and get 30% off of the full paid subscription price. That's the best offer we can make for you guys.

SPEAKER_01 33:15

Absolutely. All right, Gary, as always, we appreciate you cutting through the noise and mapping out these charts for us. Thanks for making the time. Uh, we'll see you way sooner than we did the last time. All right, my friend.

SPEAKER_00 33:25

All right, great to see you again.

SPEAKER_01 33:27

Thanks, Kev. Appreciate it. And uh obviously this ceasefire we just talked about with Trump, he's saying that it would last May 9th to the 11th, and it coincides with Russia's Victoria Day celebrations. That, according to the U.S. President on a social media post, uh, just uh just now as we come to air here. So, for everyone watching, we want to hear from you. Are you are you trusting this breakout in silver? What are key technical levels you're watching most closely? Let us know in the comments below. We read them all. And if you want to stay ahead of these market moves, make sure to hit that like button, subscribe right here to Kitco News channel, ring the bell, we like that little notification. I'm Jeremy Saver. Thanks for watching.

SPEAKER_03 34:03

Kitco News, chart this with Gary Wagner.

SPEAKER_02 34:07

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