Gold Will Fall First, Then ‘Fly Sky High,’ Bert Dohmen Says

Are we facing a perfect storm of illiquidity? Bert Dohmen returns to Kitco News to put his 2026 market warning to the test, revealing how institutional investors are actively distributing risk to retail investors while masking deep systemic vulnerabilities.

Dohmen breaks down the hidden dangers inside the private credit market, explaining why major funds are freezing redemptions and getting caught in a leverage trap that will lead markets "into the abyss." He also unpacks his contrarian view on why standard economic theory regarding the Federal Reserve and inflation is backward, outlines impending global resource shocks, and details his specific timeline for when gold and silver will establish a market bottom before surging higher.

Recorded April 27 2026

Follow Jeremy Szafron on X: @JeremySzafron (https://twitter.com/JeremySzafron)
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For more insights from Bert Dohmen, visit: https://dohmencapital.com/kitco

Timestamps
0:00 Intro
0:55 2026 Warning Tested
02:37 Distribution And Overvaluation
05:08 Private Credit Leverage Trap
12:57 AI Hype And Defensive Plays
22:38 Metals Dip Then Surge
24:29 Time Horizon Over Trading
26:27 Know Your Portfolio
28:19 Fed Bailouts And Inflation
34:12 Energy Shocks And Wrap Up

#BertDohmen #StockMarket #KitcoNews #Gold #Silver #PrivateCredit #Inflation #Commodities #MacroEconomics

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

Kitco News in Focus with Jeremy Staffrin.

SPEAKER_02 0:03

As stock price updates every single second, a private credit loan gets marked by a model, and that difference might be exactly where the next financial crisis begins. Welcome back, I'm Jeremy Staffrin. And right now the SP 500 is pushing record highs, powered, of course, as we've mentioned before, by big tech. But look under the hood for a moment. We got Brent Crude back above $107 a barrel. Private credit funds are suddenly facing $15 billion in redemption requests. Feels like that number keeps going up, and yield-chasing investors are discovering the exit door is much, much narrower than they thought. So is the stock market seeing the strength like we see today, or is it missing the hidden losses inside the private market system? Last November, Bert Dullman warned us that 2026 would be the year that the system gets tested. Let's put that test to the thesis. I want to test that mechanism because you warned us about this year, and it would be kind of the danger zone. I mean, uh, we're looking at recent reports just this morning. Private credit funds are facing heavy redemption pressure. Uh you talked about those cracks. Is this the crack you were kind of looking for back then, or is it this still early warning noise?

SPEAKER_03 1:39

No, uh uh this is it. Uh I think it's going to be the big one. It's very reminiscent of other crash uh crashes. The most recent one we had was uh 2008. We um uh gave a sell signal, I think was two days from the top in the Dow Jones in October of 2007, and then the market deterioration started. But Wall Street is always very good at hiding uh these uh tops which are created when the big uh the big uh smart money start selling. There's this is uh called distribution. It's a um the process where uh the big money, your friends of Wall Street and so on, sell their huge uh positions in the stock market while at the same time uh their uh their uh shields go on TV. Uh oh, everything is wonderful, and there's no problem in sight. Look at uh this and this, uh, and they give some examples uh why there are no warnings yet. And uh that is uh uh that takes a long time. This time, because we think it uh it is probably one of the uh most dangerous times that we've seen in uh many decades. Um the distribution process has uh taken now since uh uh about mid-year last year. And uh so it takes a long time for uh all these big owners of stocks uh to get rid of their stocks and um uh they sell it to the public. The public, uh you know, Joe Granville used to call them the bag holders. Somebody has to own the stocks on the way uh into the basement, you know, and uh Wall Street doesn't want to own those stocks as they go down and uh raise uh 50 to 90 percent of their value. And uh that that is possibly what we're gonna have. And given today's uh drastic overvaluations, which are more overvalued than 1929, you know, uh it's um uh it's going to be a humdinger. Uh we are uh seeing uh stocks all the time like Palantir the et cetera being recommended uh by Wall Street, uh but uh people never look at valuations. Uh as a PE until recently I had a P of 388. Uh 388 PE. It takes you, if you would uh get all the earnings of the company, you owned the whole company, it would take you 388 years to get your money back. You're not gonna live that long, I don't think. So um uh the the problem is we're we're right now at the time of drastic overvaluation of stocks. Uh yes, there are stocks that they report good earnings gains over expectations, but people never ask who gives these estimates? Well, it's Wall Street gives these estimates, you know? So they make the estimates of earnings gains uh low so that they can be beaten. So then the news and the oh, everything so and so many percent of the stocks uh uh uh reported better earnings. Uh the this um uh week is going to be a big um week uh for earnings, I think one of the biggest in several decades. Uh so be careful. Uh don't look at just earnings, look at uh what they are in relation to the price of the stock. Stocks have uh now the highest overvaluation in history.

SPEAKER_02 5:11

You know, to we were talking a little bit about this Moody's report, too. I mean, it's this the they have this new warning here because this is bigger than just investors trying to redeem from private credit funds. Uh Moody says, you know, that the fund finance market has grown past $1 trillion. I mean, in plain English, that means private credit and private equity funds are borrowing money at the fund level to manage liquidity, uh, kind of bridge delayed exits and keep things moving when cash is not coming back fast enough. So now you you may have illiquid loans inside the fund. Investors are asking for the money back, and the fund itself obviously using more borrowing to manage that gap. I mean, that sounds like leverage layered on top of illiquidity. Is that the real danger that private credit is not just hard to sell, but increasingly financed with debt that can amplify losses when the cycle turns?

SPEAKER_03 6:05

See, Jeremy, you got it right there. Uh we are seeing the perfect storm. We are seeing all the different elements necessary for a remarkable downturn in the stock market. We are seeing massive uh borrowing via margin loans. This is a new record high, margin loans. Okay. Then at the same time, we see uh all these other extremes, we see spAcks, we see uh all the other uh garbage that they're selling to the public. And uh so we're seeing massive illiquidity now in the markets. Develop the theory of liquidity, uh that uh what determines the major trends of the stock market. It's not earnings. Earnings are uh irrelevant at the turning point. You know, they're they're good on the way up, but at the turning point, they don't give you a good timing list uh signal. So um we are uh seeing now massive margin loans, new record highs. We're seeing uh illiquidity in the private uh credit market, and uh we warned about the private credit market for the last year. It was that they are totally illiquid. We give an example. Harvard uh uh has an uh endowment fund, billions of dollars in the endowments, but it's all invested in private credit, or most of it. And uh so they needed a couple of a billion dollars to pay operating expenses. They didn't sell any of the private credit because it was unsalable, and so they had to go and borrow a few billion dollars to pay operating expenses. So these are all the warnings that we look for. You know, the private credit is is going to be the leader into the abyss, and that's what we have been saying for the last year. And now it turns out all these private credit funds are stopping redemptions, you can't even get your money out.

unknown 8:02

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 8:02

I mean, you watch Jamie Dimon, he says that he's not worried. Uh, you know, and and again, we look at this Moody's report uh borrowing against their own assets just to manage liquidity and cover those redemptions. I mean, if these funds are taking out loans just to survive delayed exits, isn't that embedded leverage, you know, the kind of the that exact uh trigger that turns illiquidity into insolvency?

SPEAKER_03 8:27

Uh that's exactly right. Yes, you know, and at this point, you never want to listen to the top guys that are connected with Wall Street, like the banking system and so on, because uh that is uh uh that is where you get the false news. And uh, you know, uh Colonel Douglas McGregor uh uh was on and he gave a good quote from Andrew Mellon, you know, and uh about a hundred years ago, he was the leading and the richest banker and so on. And he said in May of 1929, we live in the period of unbroken prosperity. Everything is fine, okay? Well, of course it wasn't at the same time that he said that, he was selling all of his stocks. Okay, but he was telling the public is oh, it's all wonderful.

SPEAKER_02 9:17

I mean, we're also seeing kind of the these reports that that banks are packaging these funds, finance loans, into asset-backed securities to move the risk off their balance sheets, and the Fed is now actively investigating bank exposure. Um, you know, we we were chatting before, before coming to air, and you said you've seen, and you called for 2008, and you saw some things that seem a lot different this time. I mean, are we watching a repeat of 2008 where this debt gets repackaged until nobody knows who's exactly holding the bag, as you call it? Or or what's different?

SPEAKER_03 9:53

They're doing the same thing as that they did in 2008. Do you remember the CDOs and the CDLs? They even had synthetic uh funds that they sold. They was an image of what real funds with real assets uh had, and so on just said, okay, we'll pretend that they actually have uh the same assets, and here's how you can buy a participation in that. So you're buying participations in nothing, and figments of the imagination. Wall Street is so wonderful at creating all of this uh false stuff, especially near top. So you I hate to talk like that, but we have no dependency on on Wall Street, and uh we are not beholden to anyone there, so we can say it the way it is. And a lot of people that that are Wall Street employees, they are not at liberty to say what they really think. But I am. I've always this is my company I started about half a century ago, and uh you know when I formed that the theory of liquidity and credit, I said that's the only thing you want to look at. Is the liquidity increasing or decreasing? And is uh uh credit increasing or decreasing? And that is the only thing that determines the major trend of the stock market, not the short-term. It doesn't tell you what the market's gonna do next week, but it's just a long-term trend. And the smart investors like uh Warren Buffett and so on, they go and look at the long-term trends. I remember Warren Buffett. I was in graduate school at the at the time, and there was an article in the local investment magazine about a guy in Omaha, Nebraska, who started a hedge fund that was doing so well, and that was Warren Buffett. Nobody had had ever heard of him. And he only had his friends and family in this fund, you know. So that was an interesting time. He was in Omaha and I was in Minneapolis. So uh uh yeah. So when you get your experience is so important because if you've been in the markets for a long time, you've seen it before, different versions, except this time, uh I I can multiply that many times over, five times or ten times over, ten times the leverage, ten times uh the uh amount of speculation. I mean, when you when you think of the speculation in ETFs, now they've got ETFs for single stocks, you know. Then they've got these options that expire in one day. You you buy the start trading in the morning, they stop trading at night. They just go out of existence. I mean, they're all these games, and they've got the prediction market, you know. So you can make money without ever looking at the valuation of a stock or the stock market. You just go by, well, I think uh the uh Trump is gonna say this and this, and I'm gonna buy or I'm gonna sell based on that. So uh we are seeing speculation at the maximum, and that can only end the battery.

SPEAKER_02 12:57

You know, this is interesting. I mean, because you could say, I mean, Warren Buffett, he's been sitting on a huge cash pile, basically waiting for better prices. I mean, I watched his latest interview, he was saying he thinks that there's still more to come. Is the is that the the right mindset here? Hold liquidity and wait for the for selling rather than you know, chase gold, chase silver, chase distress credit after a big move.

SPEAKER_03 13:19

Yes. You know, for that uh he's a long-term investor, and for him, that that is perfect. He can be uh a couple of years early in uh raising cash and so on, uh because he says I'm not a timer. Uh but uh that is not important. What's important is to have cash when nobody else has it. And uh during the 2008 crisis, he had the cash and nobody else had it. And Goldman Sachs had to go to Warren Buffett to get a multi-billion dollar loan, you know, and uh Warren Buffett could name his own terms. Uh that I think he asked for warrants to buy the stock uh uh anytime later date, very cheaply and so on. But he was the only one that had money. The banks didn't have any money to lend out, you know, but Warren Buffett did. And so the next bottom, he's gonna be uh buying uh uh everything inside. He's gonna see bargins. I I predict that many of the grammar stocks of today they're going to be down uh 50%, 80%, 90%. And you know, that's that's based on history. Okay, this is not just an extreme uh valuation based on history. This is what happens to the high flyers uh during big bear markets. And if this is going to be bigger than the past ones, you can bet it's gonna be there. Uh, you know, uh I have one rule in the bear market. You don't want to start a bargain hunting until the big popular stocks uh have price earnings ratios in the single digits. That's below 10. Right now, many of these stocks have PE ratios, 100 to 1, 200, 300 to 1. Well, they have to get back to valuation. That doesn't mean the company is bad or they're they're going to go bankrupt. No, it's just that they're overvalued right now. Somebody trying to sell you a Yugo for a half a million dollars, would you buy it? No. But you might like it if it were a reasonable price at 20,000, you know? That's it's a matter of valuation.

SPEAKER_02 15:28

You know, right now we see this weird kind of interesting divergence. Uh you're you just you're describing severe stress in private credit. Um, and we're seeing these reports. I mean, public credit's telling almost a different story. It was today alone, according to Bloomberg, companies like Walmart and Intel, they swarmed the primary market to lock in debt with investment grade spreads actually tightening. Uh, how do you square those two things? Is the public market just kind of lagging behind, or are we looking at two completely different credit realities?

SPEAKER_03 16:00

Well, we're talking about the reality uh and um and then uh what uh Wall Street wants you to think. You know, so they're two different things. Uh at the top, uh, when they're still distributing stocks, as we are, we we do a lot of technical analysis. Uh we call it advanced technical analysis because there we pick up the signs that the the big smart money is exiting the market. And we have been seeing that now for the last uh oh at least uh uh nine months or so uh started actually in June of last year. And uh so this uh this showed us that the big money is exiting, the big smart money. And when the big smart money is exiting, uh we don't want to be buying. We don't want our clients to be buying. We don't manage money, okay, because everybody has a different psychological makeup. And uh, you know, most people want to buy at the top and they want to sell at the bottom, and that's a very difficult way to make money. And uh so we we don't like to do the hand holding, and we just look at the markets. We look at the markets instead of the investor. And uh the markets uh when they tell us caution, don't buy, then we don't buy. You know, it's that simple. Now, last year, of course, we made that uh we had that April plunge, uh, and um then everybody started buying uh the uh high flyers again, and um so we did not at that time uh suggest getting into all of the stuck uh the stuff that had plunged. So some people might say that we missed the opportunities in a big rally that was manipulated afterwards, you know. But we got into uh what we consider less risky investment with a higher potential, and that was gold and silver-related investments, you know. So uh some of the stocks that we bought into, like the silver miners, they were up about 140 percent in less than a year. 140 percent. That certainly beat the SP, and we had a much lower risk. So that's the way you want to invest.

SPEAKER_02 18:16

Yeah, yeah. I was gonna ask you, I mean, you know, uh when you when you say Wall Street's trying to hand retail the bag, um I think people get that at home. I mean, what's the what's the product this time? I mean, you you were talking about glamour stocks today, maybe following that 50-80 percent. AI is holding up the public market through big tech, but uh, according to industry estimates, I mean, legacy software businesses make up a significant portion of private credit portfolios. Is is AI both the the boom and the trigger?

SPEAKER_03 18:47

Yes, that's so well said it actually is. You know, all these glamour AI, I think, is is uh I've called it magic in the past. It's amazing. But uh AI is the greatest thing since the industrial revolution. But we had the uh other uh glamour uh uh sectors before uh in the 1920s, for example, anything related to uh flight, uh airplanes, uh airlines, etc., the stocks shot up. Okay, so uh it was basically a straight line up. And uh then came the crash, and then from 1929 to 1932, uh airline sector went down 87 percent. Okay, people were still flying. There was um uh they loved flying, they loved um being passengers, going someplace very fast, uh, etc. So the industry did well, but the stocks declined 87 percent. That's so important for people to realize.

SPEAKER_02 19:52

You know, for for the average investor watching back home, uh Bert, I mean, how how does uh an average viewer kind of recognize when Wall Street is distributing risk to them instead of offering opportunity?

SPEAKER_03 20:05

Uh the best way is uh by subscribing to our Wellington Letter and our trading services, uh, because we do all the work for you. Uh we do uh all the stuff that we've learned over the last, well, I've been trading the markets for more than 50 years, but uh uh this is uh knowledge, experience, the technical analysis, advanced technical analysis. We know uh how to interpret the signals that we get with volume. You know, so many uh analysts only look at indicators uh that are related to price. No, you have to look at the volume as well. The volume is the biggest uh factor uh in the technical analysis and so often forgotten by uh by the younger, inexperienced uh analysts that have only been doing it for the last 20 years. So uh this is the important thing. You have to know where to look. And there is a time to be fully invested in, there's a time to be very cautious. And the stuff that uh Wall Street wants you to get into, like private credit. You don't want that because it's totally illiquid. You don't want anything the way the you invest in the fund and then you want to uh cash out of the fund and they say, oh, sorry, we're not uh taking any withdrawals right now. Uh caught us back in a year or so. Uh that is not that liquidity. Okay, so our simple law is uh the theory of liquidity and credit. When liquidity and credit are expanding, you want to be investing. When they're contracting as they are now, you want to not invest, you want to be out of these type of stocks, anything that's uh that's uh highly valued. There are sectors that are undervalued, there are uh where the stocks sell at Single digit PEs, they exist. And you can find them. So that's where you want to be.

SPEAKER_02 22:08

Yeah. Yeah. I'm going to get you to maybe name one of them. But before that, too, I mean, gold in in this environment has acted like protection. I mean, we've seen that run up, but but in a real liquidity squeeze, investors sell what they can, not what they want to. Does does you know gold get hit first before it goes higher here?

SPEAKER_03 22:27

Yes. You know, you got again, you got it exactly right. There will be short-term uh uh declines. There's short-term meaning, you know, not a 10-year decline, uh, but uh uh in in gold and silver as people run for the exits everywhere. Okay, and uh so they sell what they can. And uh if you can't sell individual stocks that you want to get rid of, uh then you have to sell stuff that you can sell where there is a bidder. And that would uh also be the precious metals. So the precious metals will have a decline, uh, but uh it uh always bottoms out much earlier than the general stock market. And as soon as uh the big investors uh decide they want to get in again, they will buy it. And then you see gold and silver, they're gonna fly sky high. But first, you're gonna have that decline, and that's gonna discourage a lot of people. Uh so that's why you have to make up your mind right now and write it down what your decision is that you will not sell for the next five years. Okay, that is so important because people that they think they're long-term investors, suddenly they become when there's a market decline, they become short-term investors and they become traders. They say, Oh no, I want to trade this market. And uh that that is wrong. You know, uh Jesse Livermore, he was the greatest trader in the 1920s, made lots of money, short-term trading on the floor of the exchange. Okay. But he said in 1935, after the crash and so on, he said, the big money is made by sitting, not by trading. That's that's a very important statement from someone who made millions of dollars of short-term trading.

SPEAKER_02 24:26

Yeah, yeah, yeah. And bring it back to gold and silver maybe for this year. I mean, you've you've argued the precious metals are are the safer place to be, but both have already had nice moves over the past year. I mean, from here, do you see more upside in 2026? And and which one you know has the better risk reward here? Is it gold, is it silver, is it the miners?

SPEAKER_03 24:46

Well, you have to define your time horizon.

SPEAKER_02 24:48

Right.

SPEAKER_03 24:49

Right? People always forget that. I used to speak a lot at conference, and people would ask me, well, where do you think gold is going? Or somebody remember one time said uh in the restroom, he said, Oh, well, uh, yesterday on the panel you were uh bullish on gold, uh, but you were wrong because today it's down. You know, yeah, so he's got a one-day time horizon. Uh that's not the way to look at the markets. You know, you have to define your time horizon before you go into it. And if you have trouble seeing with your decision, write it down. Everybody in the market should have a uh I have a spiral bond, a notebook, and uh the trades are in there, what what you decide to do, and so on. So you have to keep a daily diary of the market. Put in there what is important, what happened to it that was important, how did the market uh react to it, what you find is a good investment, what you find is a bad investment. Yeah, don't rely on your memory. You know, uh these these spiral bounds, I've got a whole stack of these spiral-bound notebooks, one for each year. So uh uh that part is getting big. But it's really important because you can go back in time and say, oh gosh, I want to remember uh October 2007, for example, when we gave the Celsius in the stock market. And uh it was uh the top, I think, of uh the indulgence. So you you want to um if you decide to invest, you want to treat like a business. Uh I um uh uh did something as an experiment uh some years ago. I would ask uh people, you know, you meet at cocktail parties and so on, they'd ask me about the markets. I said, Do you know what is in your IRA? And they said, uh no, no. I uh I'm somebody somewhat I said, well, uh do you have bonds or do you have stocks? They didn't, most of the people didn't even know that stock-related or bond-related investments. They had no idea where their savings for their uh retirement were um uh were placed. So uh this is not how you want to invest. You want to know exactly what you own. And yeah, and uh you know that that's so important. You can't just take the attitudes, uh, you know, uh God will take care of it.

SPEAKER_02 27:16

I mean, a lot of people do. We see that all the time. I mean, it's a key point. Most people know that their R maybe they know their IRA balance, but they don't actually know what they own inside. So, I mean, what should um viewers kind of check tonight? You know, we're we're looking at this program, they're watching the interview. I mean, to tonight should they check their stock exposure? Should they check bond duration, private credit exposure, leverage ETFs?

SPEAKER_03 27:40

Out of those. Out of those. And uh really see where your exposure is in an illiquate market environment. That is a very important thing. And uh then uh act accordingly. There are going to be assets because you have to uh um uh really see where uh what is going to benefit of what the Federal Reserve will be doing. So uh um uh uh Mr. Trump is going to have his guy as head of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh. He he's uh good before, he had uh many of the right ideas um uh about the Federal Reserve, but is he going to be his own man when he gets in a position or not? You know, that's important. Now, one thing I like about uh uh Trump uh in um in the case of monetary policies, he really would like to have lower interest rates. And you know, there's a common fiction in the economic world, uh, and that is that uh to fight inflation, you have to raise interest rates. And that is exactly the wrong prescription. You don't raise interest rates by itself in order to fight inflation, because uh higher interest rates are cost of doing business. When the cost of business rises, then uh you have to raise prices in order to pay for the higher interest rate. So higher interest rates traditionally, when they're not uh a function of tight money, then you uh want to expect inflation. I started my business in 1977, 1978, a new um Federal Reserve uh chairman, he was uh formerly the president of the text fund, and he became uh Fed chairman. He said, I'm not going to fight inflation with tight money, we're going to do with um with interest rates. And I said, Oh, we wrote this is a prescription for inflation, full speed ahead. So we want to buy all the inflation hedges, gold, silver, all the mining stocks. And then we didn't recommend at that time call options in the mining stocks. We didn't we don't um we don't recommend options anymore because most people overdo it. We say, no, don't put more than 3% in any one option. That was always what we said, and uh then we would find people had maybe half of the portfolio in one call option. So that's not the way to invest. Uh but uh the thing is, you know, with uh uh the where to put your money, the the Federal Reserve is going to react uh by putting money into the system. They're going to have to bail out. It's going to be the big bailout uh uh uh uh happening. And that means artificial money creation. Artificial money creation means reduced purchasing power of the money that you have. So instead of a loaf of bread uh selling God, I couldn't believe the recently, uh for nine dollars for a loaf of bread, uh, and it's really unhealthy stuff at the same time. Uh so uh you're gonna see a loaf of bread for $50 or $100, and uh people are gonna pay it if they want to eat bread. You know, there's a uh people have to read about the German hyperinflation in the early 1920s. There was a uh German entrepreneur, he was very smart, Hugo Stinnis, S-T-I-N-N-E-S. There's a book about him, you have to read it. And uh he ended up owning several thousand companies that he bought uh during that time with borrow money. He would uh uh borrow the money and uh buy these companies. And um the uh the prices went up because these were all companies in the consumer sector that were selling or making things that people really needed. So he became immensely wealthy, Hugo Stenders. Read a book about the experience that journal and how uh you know they were printing money so fast they uh the government didn't have enough printing presses. So they confiscated the larger uh private printing presses uh at that time in order to print money faster, and uh because you know uh a thousand-mark uh note uh suddenly became a ten billion dollar uh note. And um uh so then uh that they couldn't print money fast enough with the new printing presses that they uh expropriated, and uh then they uh uh they used rubber stamps. So suddenly a million-mark um uh note became uh a billion uh mark note, you know, which was uh a milliard in German. And uh so uh this is what what happens. And uh they had a responsible uh uh people at one time and the good government, but uh Germany was forced to pay reparations to the Allies for uh damage of uh World War I. And of course there wasn't enough money around, so they had to crane. Um now if everything starts uh falling apart, uh what is Wall Street gonna do? What is what is the Federal Reserve going to do? They're gonna have a choice, uh let everything uh go bankrupt or print a lot of money to save everybody. Well, of course, it's gonna be the latter, because the long-term uh side effects, which is very high inflation, is probably not gonna have to be handled by the people who created the mess. So that's the politicians are only in there for a short-term period of time, long enough to steal our money, and then they uh go back and enjoy and enjoy the the Bahamas on the beach. So, you know, you always have to think what's gonna happen and how you can react to it. Right now, I see the big problem in the world is energy, oil. There's gonna be a huge shortage of oil. There's already a huge shortage of fertilizer, which is made from oil. Uh helium. Who would have thought that helium gas uh uh would be scarce, but they need helium to make semiconductors uh without uh with the closure of the Strait of Hornet Moose? Helium is not coming onto the market. Fertilizer is not coming onto the market, so you're going to have worldwide famines. This is a forecast I mean in 2020, a forecast for the decade that uh we always traditionally make. And you said, look at the 1930s, that is uh uh basically what we're gonna go into, except it will probably but be much worse than the 1920s. Well, we're there. We're starting to see the famine, we're starting to see the energy short shortages. You're gonna have to take a bicycle to work. Uh so uh, you know, it's starting to happen now. You're gonna see riots in the street, you're gonna see millions and millions of uh these so-called uh illegal migrants um being thrown out of their countries, or uh at least fighting in the streets, uh, because uh the people will say, the people of the countries will say, you are taking my job, and I can't get a job because you're taking it, you're here illegally. This is my country. So that these are the kind of things that we're gonna see. You know, I hate to be a Guru Madur because I'm basically a very optimistic person. And um to be an entrepreneur, you have to be optimistic, right? And uh uh but uh this is reality. You know, when you see all of these trends, excessive debt, excessive overvaluation like we've never seen before, then you see liquidity drying up. The private sector, uh the private credit uh sector uh gives a good picture of what's happening in the credit markets. And don't consider this an isolated event. This is not an isolated event. This is the uh canary in the mind, as we used to call it.

SPEAKER_02 36:00

Right.

unknown 36:01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 36:02

It's interesting you and I were chatting about it. I mean, you know, we were talking about the rates and in that kind of textbook knowledge, you know, uh Volker raised rates aggressively and inflation collapsed a little. Is today different because the debt load is much larger? Uh I guess let me ask it more specific to wrap up, because our time always goes too fast, Bert. You know, to just to show the devil's advocate on the other side, I mean, what maybe specific kind of data point would you would would make you say, okay, I'm wrong, the system absorbed the leverage?

SPEAKER_03 36:33

Well, I think if the Federal Reserve um uh basically made it clear that they're not gonna bail out any sector that is uh collapsing. And then I'd say, okay, get ready for um uh depression, it's gonna be earlier and sharper, uh, but it would be over sooner. See, Paul Walker came in and he did that. He but he's the only Fed chairman I've ever seen that had the courage to say, we're not gonna have just more expensive money. That's the important thing is the liquidity. And he didn't care about drying up liquidity. He said that you dry up the liquidity. He even imposed credit uh credit controls on uh credit card debt, I think it was in March of 1980. And uh so he uh actually killed inflation. Paul Burger should get more credit than he does for making that decision, because most economists say, no, no, you got to raise interest rates. You know, there's a good example. Margaret Thatcher came in in Britain. Uh, Britain uh interest rates from single digits went to double digits because they kept on raising interest rates because inflation was rising. Okay. And I wrote a letter to Margaret Thatcher when she came in that said, you have to stop raising interest rates. When you stop raising interest rates and start uh seeing to it that rates will decline, then inflation will decline. Uh, I don't know if she ever read the letter, but she did exactly that, and double-digit inflation uh went away uh for England. Erdogan and Turkey is doing the same thing. You know, uh one economist uh uh on TV yesterday, he said uh oh Erdogan's uh terrible and um they have uh very high inflation, 30% inflation uh, and uh because uh he fired all his uh central bankers that wanted to raise interest, interest rates have uh higher interest rates to fight inflation. Well, Erdogan was correct. He was doing exactly what I was um uh uh uh advising in the in our publications. I said he has to stop the central bankers, his central bankers, from raising interest rates. Um the interest rates, uh the inflation rate was about 180%. The economists yesterday didn't mention that because he said, oh, the inflation is terrible in Turkey, it's 30%. Yeah, but he got it down from 180%, and he fired three of his central bankers because they were raising interest rates when he won, when he said no, he's gonna fight inflation much better by lowering interest rates, but you gotta have tight money at the same time. So he got inflation down from 180% to 30%. That's a great achievement. Now, economist, of course, yesterday didn't mention that, that he was very successful in getting inflation down that much, you know. So this is how how the actual news is always tainted. Right now, I said people don't believe anything that comes out of Washington. Yeah, it's gonna be lies. The BLS numbers, they're all lies. Inflation numbers, they're lies. Everything. You know, people can't believe that this would come out of the government. Yes, but we pay these people to do lies.

SPEAKER_02 40:02

Yeah, well said. All right. Well, I mean, either way, the next Fed meeting is this week, April 28th, 29th, decision due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern. We got a conference after that, and then of course I'll be covering it on Thursday. Again, markets largely expect the Fed to hold rates in the 3.5 to 3.25% range. Uh, Bert, thank you for this as always, founder of Doman Capital Research, publisher of the Wellington Letter. Uh, we appreciate your time and your perspective.

SPEAKER_03 40:31

Well, you know, one thing I would like to say, this uh special report that we're offering, it's free of charge. Okay, so you don't give your credit card, you go to Domancapital.com, and it's 18 pages of really, really good reading if you're interested in what is uh going to cause the next uh crisis and how to handle it. So 18-page special report uh and um uh it's uh it's called the trigger for the next global financial crisis. So if you're interested in knowing what the trigger for the next global financial crisis is, here's a way to find out. It's free. Uh 18 pages, you can read that uh in a short time. But uh your time is short if baseball watching baseball is more important, then you you will miss that.

SPEAKER_02 41:22

I appreciate that. Well said. Uh, and hopefully they're keeping it tuned right here to Kitco News as well. All right, Bart, appreciate your time. Thanks again for today.

SPEAKER_03 41:30

Okay, thank you very much.

SPEAKER_02 41:32

Thank you. All right, and thank you again for watching Kitco News. The question today: are investors looking at real prices or hidden losses? Let us know where you stand in the comments. I'm Jeremy Stafford. Thank you for tuning in. We'll see you next time.

SPEAKER_01 41:44

KitCo News in Focus with Jeremy Stafford.

SPEAKER_00 41:49

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