Gold Breaks Support: Mapping The Final C-Wave Correction With Gary Wagner

With gold pulling back to test its 200-day moving average and silver flashing oversold momentum, technicians are mapping the structural damage to the precious metals complex. Gary Wagner, editor of The Gold Forecast, joins Kitco News to break down the final C-wave correction in gold and the 78% Fibonacci retracement level holding silver.

Wagner outlines how the ongoing macro shocks—including Brent crude surging past $108 a barrel and Turkey's central bank liquidating 60 tons of gold for liquidity —are fundamentally driving the charts. He also details what needs to happen geopolitically for gold and silver to decouple from rising bond yields and catch a safety bid.

Recorded March 26 2026

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Chapters:
01:24 ABC Correction Breakdown
02:53 Key Support Levels
04:43 Oil and Fed Pressure
07:20 Crude Chart Resistance
09:40 Silver Technical Damage
11:46 Central Banks as Liquidity
13:18 What to Watch Next
17:10 Wrap Up and Viewer Call

#Gold #Silver #GaryWagner #KitcoNews #GoldPrice #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis #Investing #Finance #MacroEconomics #Inflation #CrudeOil #FederalReserve #Trading #Charts

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Disclaimer:  
The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.

Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

Kitco News, Chart This with Gary Wagner.

SPEAKER_02 0:05

Welcome back to Chart This. I'm Jeremy Safron. All right, we got war. Brent crude surging past$108 a barrel and sticky inflation. Now, by all traditional metrics, precious metals should be rallying. Instead, they're going through a severe stress test or watching a significant repricing across the board today. Spot gold just broke below that$4,400 mark, dropping over$120 on the session. Silver is taking an even harder hit, down over 5% to the$67 level. Now, with peace talks stalling, uh, the sell-off in stocks today is gaining speed. Also, the US dollars pushing back towards 100, and treasury yields continue to climb. Now, the market is navigating a bit of a liquidity squeeze here, but for long-term investors, the question is: is this washout exactly what the market needs to build a healthier foundation to the next lag up? Joining me to map out the technical damage, uh, find the new floor, and of course, look for buying opportunities, is the editor of the Gold Forecast, our friend Gary Wagner. Gary, welcome back. Good to see you.

SPEAKER_03 1:06

Thanks so much. Uh, the these are exciting times, but not for the reason typically that we would look for. But let's get into what's causing this downside pressure.

SPEAKER_02 1:18

Yeah, absolutely. Because I mean, you know, I was looking at the tape this morning. We had you on about two and a half weeks ago. And in this market, it should almost be daily with these volatile moves. But pull up your chart for gold. I mean, last time we spoke, you warned us about an ABC correction, noting that you're worried, you know, the market could take that final C wave lower. I mean, with spot gold now trading down in the 4380s and losing over 120 bucks in the session alone. Is this simply that C wave playing out? Or for the Bulls watching, I mean, does completing this correction finally clear the deck for a recovery?

SPEAKER_03 1:55

At some point, and I I believe it could be a week or so before we see it, but absolutely, in terms of that correction I was looking for, the ABC correction, if we move over to the chart, after we hit this all-time record high, and that was back on the 29th of January, we did go into an ABC correction. The A wave took us to uh 44 and change, and then we had that B wave, which came in just right. The B wave should always be between uh 50 and 70 percent of the move down. And this move here, as you can see, the lines are light, but this is our final C wave down. And the interesting thing is the C wave itself, when you look at the action on Monday and you look at the wick on that candle. Let me go ahead and blow this up a little bit. Uh, what you see is that that won't do it. What you see is the wick came down and actually challenged but found support at that 200-day long-term moving average. And so, do I believe it's over? I think that we have the ability to retest if support holds at the 200-day moving average. Also, considering these moving averages broke through the 50 simple-day moving average, then the 100-day, and now that last uh banning of hope, which we've relinquished because obviously we've seen this go down, and you have to take the truth. It's been bearish, and we have a bearish demeanor right now. We can talk about the reasons later, but if it does continue to move lower, it's really got a test uh 4,097, and that's the low that came in on Monday, which matches the 200-day moving average. Now it recovered quite nicely, even though it closed lower on Monday, went up for a couple of days, and now we have a significant sell-off uh down roughly$10.97 now. So you can see it's moving back up from these lows that came in earlier during the day. So, in terms of the technicals in the ABC, that's how I see that playing out. We are in the last part of that, that C-wave, but it could go back to test these lows, it could easily falter. You see these X's here. So roughly at well, so I haven't se gold like this, but at 4285, if it does come down and test the 200-day moving average, that's at 4,090. We'll have to see how it plays off. Oil has been the big thing, and the other thing that's really spooked traders, is that it is perceived now that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates. We knew that during the announcement that was made during the Fed meeting, but now there's a 38% probability, according to the CME's FedWatch tool, which um talks to interest rate futures traders, and they've got to be pretty sharp on that, otherwise they wouldn't be trading the interest rates. A 38% probability that they'll actually enact a rate cut later this year. Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 5:28

No, it's definitely flipped. I mean, the tone certainly has. I mean, of course, we just saw a Brent crude spike past$108 a barrel is optimism for a quick uh quick piece resolution. It starts to fade here. What we're finding out, obviously, it's a developing story, and we're also getting fresh warnings about global inflation. I mean, oil is clearly driving yields higher, but what needs to happen on the charts for gold to decouple from this rate pressure and finally catch a safety bid?

SPEAKER_03 5:57

In my belief, the number one thing that would help it fundamentally is if we saw crude light soften in terms of price. It has come back down below 100, but that is what's pressuring the thought of inflation, and because of that, the actions of the Federal Reserve at upcoming uh Fed meetings with a possibility of a rate hike, and that has challenged the price of gold. Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 6:28

Hey, I mean, if if oil stays elevated and forces the Fed to remain hawkish, is there uh you know a technical floor that can actually hold, or are we kind of entirely at the mercy of the bond market right now?

SPEAKER_03 6:42

Well, uh, treasury yields have been rising, and what we see when we see that is gold tends to thrive uh when interest rates are lower because the investors looking at what potential investment has the best outcome of profitability, and the treasures have been to play recently, and the energy crude light.

SPEAKER_02 7:08

Uh, I know you have a chart on that, and it feels as though when we pull up a uh silver or excuse me, an oil chart right now, you know, you can almost see some tweets, you can almost see some of this talking back, peace deal, not peace deal. Is there any technicals making sense in that one right now?

SPEAKER_03 7:23

Well, here's what we're looking at. Um, when we look at, I've got a February tracement starting at 55 and moving up. You see, during this day, the high came in at 119, but it didn't close there. It closed roughly at$94, but then we opened up a couple of days later at 100, closed below it. And so it seems as though there is technical resistance, fundamentally base, of course, at$100 a barrel. But over the last three days, we had this tremendous move on Monday from about 100 closing at 88, and then we see it really moving back up, and now we've got crude light at about 93.50. Uh, this is the most active futures contract. So, you know, this is a hardcore parabolic spike over less about a week, and then we do see resistance at 100. It has tested it, but it has not been able to sustain that level. But nonetheless, this is hurting globally, not only Americans, but all around the world, because we are a petroleum-based society, uh, not even a country, but all over the world. And you're seeing the impact on that and inflation being a major concern because we're a petroleum-based society. Yeah. And so when it spikes, it hurts. The answer to that is to resolve the conflict in Iran with the United States and Israel, because without that, it's going to be difficult when you've got uh Iran controlling the strait and limiting the amount that comes out of that major uh throughway, which I believe accounts for about 20% of global production runs through the strait. So we've got to look to see that abate. If that does, we'll see crude oil abate. Until that does, we're going to see pressure on gold, the probability of inflation moving higher.

SPEAKER_02 9:38

Yeah, yeah. And of course, that's pressure on uh, you know, straight into inflation fears, yields, dollar strength. Uh, I want to switch over to silver, Gary, because I mean it's taking a beating. It's it's down over 5% on the session, testing a low about$60 or so it's$67 on the spot side. And I know obviously you trade futures, but a drop like that shakes out a lot of weak hands. I mean, looking at the Fibonacci levels uh and the broader kind of structure, is this starting to look like an oversold buying opportunity, or is the technical damage too deep to kind of step in right now?

SPEAKER_03 10:11

Well, the technical damage is major, it is steep. We look at short term that 50-day moving average broke through that back on um March 11th. Then it broke through the 100 day about four days ago, and it has tested the 78% Fib retracement, not the 200 day. So, without a question of a doubt, it has changed. And in terms of momentum, uh, if it's overbought or oversold, let me um but in terms of the stochastics, you can see that it came down to um really nothing, and right now it's sitting at about 25. So it's definitely momentum based on a stochastic technical study showing us that it has become oversold and come back up, but then it spiked down again. So uh silver, I believe, has room to go as low as the 200-day moving average. It's tested and found supported at the 78 February tracement. And the data set that I'm using for that starts back in October of last year when we were looking at silver at about 46 up to this incredible all-time record high above 120.

SPEAKER_02 11:40

Yeah, what a wild chart to look at. I mean, you and I have been through some trenches together, but when you get hit with some of these macro shocks, um, it starts to change the narrative a little bit. And that's why I wanted to bring up, Gary. I mean, Bloomberg reported today that Turkey Central Bank sold and swapped about 60 tons of gold worth more than$8 billion over two weeks after the war in Iran began. Now, some of that was sold outright, while most of it was used in swap agreements to secure foreign exchanges in lira's. Um, if if official sector holders are now using gold as a liquidity tool, it looks like we can start to see signs of that in this price action and this volatility as well on the chart.

SPEAKER_03 12:20

Absolutely. Fundamentally speaking, uh Turkey is a world power, but a small drop in the bucket compared to what could happen if some of the major countries begin to do something. Russia just announced that they are not letting any of their gold go, and they're a huge producer. Um, and that to me is significant, but absolutely that we could see a domino effect. We haven't yet, but I wouldn't count it out. We, as you said, we have seen we've been through the trenches. This one is a deep trench, without a doubt. The resolution is to end the conflict somehow between the U.S. and Iran. If that occurs, we could really see a pivot from bearish to bullish. Until that occurs, I believe that the bearish pressure will remain.

SPEAKER_02 13:19

Yeah, yeah, wild. Um, anything that traders should be looking out for over the next week that you just want to kind of grace them with and say, hey, watch these levels, and then we can kind of find out where before we let you go?

SPEAKER_03 13:32

I mean, sure. The this is there's no technical aspect to what we've seen in gold, silver, and crude oil. It's all fundamentally based. The main action we need to see is a resolution between the U.S. and Iran. Until that happens, there's nothing out there that will save these commodities from moving lower. It cannot find support when crude oil is spiked so high, so quickly, and has that real potential and already has ticked up inflation. I believe I heard the reading that they're going to announce at around 4% inflation. You know, the Fed targets 2%, so it's double what their target was. At the best, we got it down to, or the Fed got it down to uh 3%, which is still 1% above their target. Now it's double that. And so that's the concern. The fix to all of this is the military conflict in the Middle East with the U.S. and Iran. That that's the biggest issue. If that gets resolved, we will see the possibility, and I believe a strong probability of a reversal in gold and silver. As long as that conflict remains headline news and they don't have they the peace talks that they're having haven't had favorable results. At least that's what we're hearing. Um, and until that changes, we could see gold meander lower, silver go lower, and crude move higher.

SPEAKER_02 15:20

Yeah, yeah. Hey, before we we sum up, I mean, we got pretty comfortable there with all this narrative about central bank demand and buying. And it looks like you know, central banks have continued to be buyers according to the World Gold Council. But with this news out of Turkey, I mean, if if central banks start monetizing gold during stress instead of just accumulating it, does that change now how traders should think about support in this market?

SPEAKER_03 15:44

Absolutely. Um we have we have not seen this in a while where gold central banks are using gold to boost liquidity and to do things with um what Russia did, we what Turkey did. Um these are defensive mechanisms that are in place by the central banks, and they're reacting to the real possibility of inflation getting out of hand. And one thing is that crude oil serves as a very sensitive commodity to inflation because it it's across the board, it challenges corporations, companies, individuals, and once that happens, where the individual is um suffering because of these high prices, I believe in the US that gold has come, I mean crude has come up by uh over um a gas lean, I'm sorry, has come up over a dollar. That's something that's gotta be real resolved, and it all stems back to the military conflict in play.

SPEAKER_02 16:55

Yeah, yeah, well said. And I I guess on the other side, it could say uh once these localized liquidity crunches pass, it kind of implies central banks will eventually have to step right back in as a massive physical buyer to replenish those reserves as well. So I guess we're gonna have to see where this one finds out. Listen, Gary, appreciate you making the time of, as always, a grounded perspective. It's easy to get shaken out during these volatile stretches. So we appreciate you breaking down the charts and keeping us focused on the structural trends.

SPEAKER_03 17:26

Uh, glad to help to inform our viewers of how some technicians, myself included, are concerned about certain scenarios and how that will affect uh global economies across the world and inflation. So we see a clear-cut path to resolving this, but as I said, it's not in our hands. It's between the peace stocks of the US and Iran.

SPEAKER_02 17:52

Yeah, yeah. And we'll see where all of these metals keep catching a bid. Feels like every day is quite volatile, but there's some floor basing here. Um, okay, Gary, appreciate this. Uh we'll see we'll talk to you, I guess, in a couple of weeks. Thanks, man.

SPEAKER_03 18:05

You got it. Thanks for having me.

SPEAKER_02 18:07

Thanks, Gary. And for everyone joining us right now, we want to hear from you. Are you using this pullback as a buying opportunity or are you just staying on the sidelines until the dollar cools off? Let us know in the comments down below. Make sure to hit that like button, subscribe to the KitCo News channel, and ring the notification bell so you'll never miss a market update. I'm Jeremy Safford. Thanks for watching. We'll see you on the next one.

SPEAKER_01 18:27

Kitco News Chart This with Gary Wagner.

SPEAKER_00 18:32

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