Gold's Next Cycle Won't Need a Falling Dollar to Succeed: Gareth Soloway

Gold just suffered its steepest weekly decline in more than 14 years, plunging toward $4,100 an ounce before a violent rebound. While mainstream headlines credit the pause on Iranian energy strikes, Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, warns that a much larger, systemic threat is driving the selloff.

In this compelling macro and technical breakdown, Soloway explains how a brewing crisis in the $2 trillion private credit market is triggering margin calls, forcing investors to liquidate gold as it behaves increasingly like a risk asset. Furthermore, he reveals the chart that is truly dictating U.S. geopolitical policy: the U.S. 10-year yield nearing 4.5%.

Soloway maps out his exact technical targets, explaining the "Phoenix effect" setup that requires a washout of weak hands before gold resumes its long-term trajectory toward $10,000. He also details his warning for the S&P 500, the failure of the U.S. dollar's crisis bid, and why capital is currently rotating into Bitcoin.

(Recorded on March 23, 2026)

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In This Video:
00:00 Gold Crash and Whiplash
01:18 Bear Case: Gold as a Risk Asset
04:00 Key Gold Levels and Bounce Setup
05:35 How Low Can Gold Go?
07:54 Silver Divergence and Targets
10:48 Miners & GDX Swing Trade
13:27 Oil, Yields, and Fed Pressure
17:28 Liquidity Squeeze and 2008 Echoes
21:47 Dollar Weakness and De-dollarization
25:27 Investor Playbook and Bitcoin Rotation
29:07 Trading Psychology and Wrap Up

#Gold #Bitcoin #Macro #GarethSoloway #KitcoNews
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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

In Focus with Jeremy Saffron is brought to you by Swan, the real Bitcoin company.

SPEAKER_02 0:08

Welcome back home, Jeremy Saffron. Well, gold just had one of its most violent sessions of the year after suffering its steepest weekly decline in more than 14 years. Look at that chart. I mean, the metal plunged towards$4,100 an ounce on the spot side this morning before rebounding back towards that 4450 level. Just a wild move. It looks like it's still quite volatile here. Now, this follows news that President Trump would pause strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, but we're now getting more specific operational details. According to Axio, Steve Whitkopf and Jared Kushners are reportedly negotiating with the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammed Bajar Ghalibaf, with a potential high-level uh meeting in Islamabad later this week. Obviously, this is a fast-moving story we'll keep be keeping an eye on here at Kitco. Joining me today is Gareth Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing. Gareth has maintained one of the more uh bearish outlooks on gold this year, targeting 3,500 by year in. Now, today that market moved sharply towards that level before snapping back on this geopolitical whiplash. So we're gonna test this theory. Welcome back to the show. Good to see you.

SPEAKER_01 1:16

Hey, good to see you. Thanks for having me, Jeremy.

SPEAKER_02 1:19

Of course. Uh happy Monday. We were talking before going to tape. Uh never, never a dull Monday these days. Um, but you know, let's let's kind of get into uh we'll get into the charts in just a second, but just let me ask you this. I mean, because if if this Islamabad channel is kind of real and this turns into an actual diplomatic off-ramp, does that strengthen your bearish case because oil rolls over, yields cool, or does it weaken it because the dollar loses some of its crisis premium?

SPEAKER_01 1:47

Yeah, and that's a great question. And and I would say this is that in general, um, oil as is going to come in. And then I also think gold, like you're saying, is still gonna head down to that 3,500 level. And one of the concerns I've had for gold, and this is one of the bearish case scenarios, is that gold has been reacting like a risk asset. And so for instance, this morning when oil was up before the Trump tweet about talks with Iran, we saw gold selling off, and when the markets rallied back, that's when gold snapped back. And what that tells me as a technician of the charts and a psychological indicator for investors is that they are using it as a risk asset, which means it has to flush down lower until you get those hands out, the weak hands, as we call them in the trading world. Once the weak hands are out, it can resume its safe haven asset status and then move up. So I would say overall is that ultimately it's not gonna matter. Uh, but I do think if markets rally here in the near term, then gold does catch a little bit of a bid.

SPEAKER_02 2:43

Yeah. It's been fascinating to watch. I mean, these volatility uh on the numbers side, just price action alone. I mean, these are things that we'd cover over months back in back in the day. I mean, uh, you mentioned it's behaving more like a risk asset than a traditional safe haven. So what's the market actually pricing here? Is it fear? Is it forced liquidation or a deeper change in gold's trade?

SPEAKER_01 3:04

I think I think right now it's a change in character of the investing players that are in it. So, you know, Jeremy, you've been around for a long time, so have I. We're in this, we're used to gold behaving when markets panic, that's when gold does well. But we saw this change of character over the last six months where people jumped in gold because they thought it was the easy way to make money. And when that happens, it drove the price up exponentially. We saw that massive move up to 5,600. We're now seeing those players needing to get washed out of the market, and that's slowly happening. And so as we see gold go down, the people that bought it thinking it was a quick buck or easy to make, and this is the same thing in silver, they will essentially dump it looking for other assets, and then it will drive it down to those$3,500 price target. And I love, listen, I want to be clear, I'm a huge bull on gold long term, same thing with silver. But when you get an asset like this to behave in an unfamiliar manner, it those players have to be wiped out out of the trade before it resumes its north trajectory.

SPEAKER_02 4:06

Yeah, let's talk about today's I mean price action. I mean, uh looking at the Kitko spot screen, we showed that low just below$4,100 this morning. Well, I know you primarily track the April gold futures. The velocity was similar, Gareth. I mean, did does today's drop to$4,100 validate your path to that$35, or did the market kind of find a near-term floor here?

SPEAKER_01 4:26

Yeah. And if we take a look at my chart here, we can see that we have the chart at$44 to$4,300. And as of now, we've regained that zone. And so what I would say this is it gives it a near-term bounce bias on gold. So I would expect gold to trade back to, let's say, potentially 46 to 4,700. Um, ultimately, I'm watching this 44 to 4300, a daily close below that. That's where you start to get your next leg lower to potentially 3,500. And again, just to show the chart here, you can see how this level was the support zone, and that initially was tagged when we had the initial drop from 5,600. We then bounced. This created what we call in the industry a bear flag formation, an inside bar move, which then rolled over, and it's struggling right here to hold that 4300, 4400. So in the near term, I'm actually flipping to slightly bullish, looking for a bounce, but then ultimately I would expect another leg lower, finally washing out the weak hands that bought this on the kind of the risk on trade, the easy money trade, and that's where we'll get that final one, and that's where I'll be buying physical metal. So I'll trade, you know. Listen, I'm a swing trader, so I'd buy and sell in here for these bounce plays, but the physical metal I don't trade, I hold on to that. That's where I buy around 3,500.

SPEAKER_02 5:41

Yeah. Wild. I mean, if it touches that 44, 43, starts dipping below. I mean, how low can this go on a correction?

SPEAKER_01 5:48

Yeah, and that's really that's really the key here. And what I do is I I go back to the charts and I say, okay, well, at 3,900 here, we're gonna have some support. You can see this pivot going back to October, late October of 2025. But ultimately, the big level, look at how price behaved going back to April of 2025, then again in May, then it hit it again in June and July, and finally broke out of that base plate right in September. And so what charts tend to do when you have a line here of resistance and price keeps hammering on the underbelly, once it breaks out, it has a parabolic move, but then it wants to come back in and tag that same level, kind of revisit the scene of the crime, then it can start its next move to the upside. And that's kind of what I'm expecting here. We had the bigger breakout, so 3,500 is that level where, again, at that point, I would say, okay, for me, there's a very low risk of getting into gold at this price. I think it actually starts to grind back to the all-time highs. And I think that we're still on pace for$10,000 gold. It just may be a couple years away.

SPEAKER_02 6:51

Yeah. Just fascinating. I mean, just watching. I mean, it sounds like you're kind of you know, calling a tradable bounce, not a not a durable bottom. So so what would turn this rebound from kind of a short covering move into a failed rally?

SPEAKER_01 7:03

Yeah, I think I think short covering and just people that got a little too scared. So you see that snap back right here on the charts. Um, but really what I'll be watching where it it could negate is if we would have to actually take out this zone up here, right? Where this high bounce was. And you can see if we look at this in terms of highs and lower highs, and a technician is always analyzing a market, and you can see we had the all-time high and then we had a lower high. And then here we have a low and a lower low. And so for this structure on this chart to change, we need to come up and we need to take out the 5,400 level. If that comes into play, then my 3,500 target is off the table. There's no chance of that, at least in the near term, and I would expect new all-time highs and that charge to 10,000 to be be underway. But until that happens, and so there's a lot of upside that could happen before that changes the structure. I have to stick with what the charts are telling me, which is again it bounces, but then sell until we hit 3,500 before that longer-term buy comes in.

SPEAKER_02 8:01

You know, a lot of our audience today looking at the price section on silver, too. I mean, it's it's quite a divergence. I mean, it hit that low on the spot side about 60, 89, then had a little recovery back above 70 for a minute, turning positive about 1%. Um, while gold struggles, I mean it's still kind of acting a little bit better than gold today. Does that tell you that this is a healthier rebound in the metals complex, or is silver simply oversold and bouncing harder before rolling over again?

SPEAKER_01 8:27

Yeah, I'm I'm in the camp that silver is just more oversold. And I also think silver is a slightly higher risk-on asset than gold. And again, gold historically has not been risk-on versus silver has been, right? When the economy's good and demand for silver is out there and climbing, it tends to perform better than gold. And so I think today's is that that bounce back in the stock market here. You're seeing it rebound. It's still a concern, though, because we have this low zone here around 70 to 71, and we're still holding below that level. And again, we closed below on Friday. We saw the big flush today getting close to$60 an ounce, and it is bouncing, and I still think there could be a sustainable short-term bounce. But I would still be in the camp that silver is going lower, and I still have a low-end target here of$50 to$54, which I've maintained, by the way, since we saw this initial flush. And even when we were back to the 90s, that chart, this chart is again in a great example. If we look at the structure here, this kind of pattern formation is all consolidation. A bear flag is what we call it in the business. And again, you can see that right here leading to this rollover. And it's just again, just so everyone understands, is when you're looking at a chart, patterns repeat because human nature and psychology doesn't change. And so bear flags tend to tell you that there's a high probability of that next leg down. And that's what we're seeing here on silver.

SPEAKER_02 9:46

Yeah. Give me a couple of those levels just once more. I I didn't catch them. I mean, what what would resistance would kind of tell you that this bounce has has real legs? And then what level would you you have to kind of break to put your bigger bearish view back into control here?

SPEAKER_01 9:59

Yeah, and so so right now the chart is kind of teetering on the edge of a cliff right here. This 70 to 71 level. You need to see price get back in here. If it gets it back in here, we could make a move back up to about 91 to 93. That's the high of the last bounce here, and also the initial bounce right in here. And so if the price could get above 93 and really break, then you're all of a sudden back in the bull momentum and you could head back to 120. But again, anything in between 70 to 71 and 93 to 91 remains bearish consolidation and eventually leads lower. It's just a matter of time. And if we continue to stay below this$70 level, then the downside's coming a lot faster. Just like with gold, I'm in the camp for a short-term bounce now. Silver again has dropped massively. I mean, if we do a percentage here, we can see just since May 10th to the lows today was a 32% drop. GDX is another one of my favorites here. Actually, it did go long GDX today because of its 35% straight drop down. And again, I think there's a swing trade here for upside on GDX back into the 94 range. But once that achieves, then I have to start looking for that next leg down.

SPEAKER_02 11:13

94. But you went long. I mean, you've still a couple of legs to get you there, right?

SPEAKER_01 11:17

Yeah, absolutely. And I want to be clear, I mean, we're in such a volatile time. You mentioned this, Jeremy, before of, you know, we're not used to, for those of us that have been around gold and silver, we're not used to$300 moves a day in gold. I mean, this is unprecedented. But it also for those of us that are traders, this gives us great opportunities to, you know, see gold drop 10%, 12%, bounce 5% in a day or so. And it really creates opportunities in things like the GDX here for a significant bounce, where even if it bounces back to 94, I mean, it's still off the$117 high. But it's, you know, for me, buying it down today, I was buying it pre-market when it was at 75, 75 to 94. You're talking about a 30, 25, 30% gain just on a few days of a swing trade. And so there's there's amazing opportunities for investors out there right now if they can read the charts.

SPEAKER_02 12:04

The GDX too, I mean, you know, these miners have just been so volatile, even more than the metal. So I mean, are you saying maybe the miners are bottoming bottoming before the metal, or is it just kind of that tactical trade inside a bigger downtrend?

SPEAKER_01 12:17

I think it's a tactical trade right now, but I do want to be clear as I have seen historically how the miners are the first to bottom before the metals. And so I will be watching this very closely. For me to start accumulating GDX, I probably need to see it, and then we're talking longer term, down to about 68. And one thing to keep in mind, one of the strategies that I employ for my swing trades is to not assume that I'm gonna hit the dead bottom or the dead highs, right? When I short, I don't always think I'm right at the highs. And what I do is I leg in, right? So if GDX comes down, let's say to 68, it may not be the bottom there, but I'll start at one quarter position size of what I want to accumulate. If it goes down maybe every$3 lower, I'll just start building that position with the bigger macro still in play that gold will eventually head higher, silver will eventually head higher. And so I think again, for so many investors out there, they missed the run in gold and silver, and they're so angry about it. They're getting an opportunity. The question is, do they get too scared, which many people do, to buy in during the free fall? And by legging in slowly, you can actually mitigate that fear by saying, okay, if I want to buy silver at 65, I'll buy, you know, one-fifth position, 62, another one-fifth, 57, etc. It gives us that opportunity to get a foothold and build that core position for that next eventual leg up.

SPEAKER_02 13:33

Interesting. I mean, in the midst of all this, obviously we got oil, we got yields reacting today, and then we got to talk about the Fed. I mean, Brent Crude reacted immediately following that Trump pause tweet, sliding from about$113 back towards 100. I mean, you've argued that oil is kind of close to topping. If oil rolls over here, stays below 90, doesn't that remove the inflation pressure and soften yields, effectively kind of removing one of the biggest near-term bearish pressures on gold?

SPEAKER_01 14:00

Yeah, and it does, it does to some extent, right? So it removes the fundamental aspect. The the aspect that I would argue that we're still facing in the medals is that you still have too many people that have gotten into gold, for instance, because it was a risk on play, because they got in because it was a momentum mover, not because of, oh my goodness, the economy's falling apart, so I have to pull money from the stock market and put it into gold. That's usually what happens. That's not what we saw in this latest move. So that money still has to be washed out, which is why it'll come in. But with oil, it's fascinating because the same pattern was forming, and I on Friday I talked about this quite a bit, is that I expected the president to kind of walk back things. So we know the president is very scared about the stock market going down. He doesn't like a down stock market. We were down 7% from all-time highs. And interestingly enough, I have these resistance levels up here, but we can ignore those for the time being. This pattern was the same pattern that was in the metals about a month ago, right? And so if we look at this pattern, then we flip back to gold, we can see down move, upside, and then the rollover, right? So if we go back to oil, down move, reversal top right here, and then inside bar, and this same sort of pattern is replaying. And so I actually do think oil is at a topping point. I think not only are the charts uh suggesting that, but you're also seeing a president who knows midterms are coming, who knows the PPI data even before this latest move. So this was in February, the PPI data was very, very hot. So it's already inflation plus the added pressure. And I would just say that even at$90 a barrel, that's still gonna add more fuel to the inflation fire that's gonna get passed through to the consumer. And so he has to bring oil down soon. Otherwise, remember, inflation takes many months to get out of the system. If he doesn't get oil down to$75,$70,$65 a barrel, I would say by June, it's not gonna be out of the system by the midterms, and that's gonna cost the Republicans, and he's very aware of that.

SPEAKER_02 15:56

Yeah, yeah. And then I mean, we got Chicago Fed president Austin Goldsby just told CNBC this morning that he could envision kind of raising interest rates if the war escalates. If the Fed keeps uh interest rates hike maybe on the table to fight this war-driven inflation, I guess doesn't that make your$3,500 target a high probability, regardless of what Trump tweets?

SPEAKER_01 16:19

Yeah, and and I think that that's the end game is that, you know, for me, it's always charts before the news because the news will come and go and it causes short-term reactions. But the structure of the chart is telling us something that's inbred inside of that metal, for instance, inside of gold. And so I think that ultimately will take it to the downside. But I also think that you have to look at the other ancillary factors, is that this is gonna cause a slowdown in the economy uh faster because of oil being higher and inflation putting pressure on things. And I do think that that initially causes a sell the news event in gold and drives it to 3,500. I also think it what's it it's what creates the Phoenix effect, which is then driving prices back up. So and let me explain that. If we look at COVID in 2020, when the panic hit, the market sold off and gold sold off. And then gold recovered very quickly and continued higher and higher and higher, and we've seen the rally. But I think it's important for investors to understand is that when fear hits, when the economy slows, when the stock market drops another five or ten percent, the initial reaction, if it's quick, will be to sell everything and then decide, okay, maybe gold is where I want to be after I sell everything and go back into gold. And I think we have to understand that that's human nature, which is what's driving price action here.

SPEAKER_02 17:30

Yeah, yeah. And as you said, I mean, it could be a good trade if we're gonna get a nice little bounce here in the short term. Um, let's look at the systemic risk. I mean, it's it's interesting. I mean, while the headlines kind of focus on this trade of hormous, we're seeing stress in the private credit with funds linked to Morgan Stanley, Cliffwater reportedly capping redemptions. There's this squeeze narrative out there. I'm just curious if you've been hearing this. I mean, are we moving into the kind of liquidity squeeze where investors sell gold not because they want to, but because they have to?

SPEAKER_01 17:57

I think I think that's that's partially it, absolutely. And I think that's partially investors that bought in at 5,600 or 5,300 or 5,200 that are now seeing themselves on gold, something that they thought they were buying that didn't have a lot of downside. All of a sudden they're down 20 plus percent on their positions, and that can create margin calls. And then you're also right, this private credit credit issue hasn't been really talked about much, and I'm glad you brought it up because you know, while oil is doing its thing and the Iran war is going on, no one's talking about it, but it is a major systemic issue here. And you're seeing a two trillion dollar private credit market that is literally starting to implode. I would remind people that back in 08, we were just early 08, we were just starting to see the crisis, the the financial crisis unfold with credit issues and loan issues, and oil was actually at the same time rallying up towards$150. It's interesting how we're seeing that mirror right now with oils popping up to$100, you know,$100 as high as$120, and also credit credit issues underneath. And I'll just point this chart out here. The US tenure, we're now seeing this. This is the equivalent from May 2nd to today's high, this is the equivalent of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve. 50 basis points from low to high. That is gonna have an impact not only on private credit, but also on the economy, on the mortgage side of things, um, on real estate, like I said. And that is also an issue. And just to bring up one more intriguing aspect is that if you go back to 2025, April, the liberation sell-off low, right? So let's go back and look at it on the market front. This big sell-off on the S P 500. Arguably what made Trump backtrack that started the big rally, he was pr he was stating these massive tariffs, 100%, this and that. And once yields got to 4.5%, he backtracked. The bond market actually put a stop to him. And interestingly enough, if we look at the 10-year yield, what did we get close to today? We got very close to 4.5%. Arguably now he's trying to walk it back, the threats back, talking about negotiations, you know, maybe getting a deal done. And I think the bond market's in play here and actually dictating policy.

SPEAKER_02 20:12

You know, I guess we could look on the I mean, if the rate market is leaning that hawkish, why shouldn't gold move more, you know, downside left? Uh on the flip side, in in 2008, I was looking at it. I mean, gold fell initially, but then rallied hard once the Fed stepped in. If policymakers kind of respond to this private credit stress with new liquidity facility, does that bring the debasement trade right back into focus in and make that year-end bear target much harder to hit?

SPEAKER_01 20:39

So I my guess is this is it doesn't make the year-end bear target harder to hit. My guess is we'll see somewhere in that$3,500 range, but it will be very short-lived. And so, you know, the idea is that the washout of the weak hands that tried to jump on this supposed easy trade they could make a fortune on, that is gonna continue to get washed out. The margin calls, all these other issues are driving it down. But this debasement trade is the real deal, folks. And my guess is$3,500-ish, give or take, it won't last very long. And we will be back towards$5,000 within three to six months. And so again, you know, understand that I am a very strong longer-term bull and even midterm bull. I just think you have to wash out these weak hands. And I agree 100% with you that the debasement trade will come right back in. As soon as the Fed goes back to lowering interest rates because the economy starts failing, the government's spending more money than ever before, and they'll continue to, especially if the economy weakens. I was even hearing that government, the government is now hiring again. So we're back to hiring people for the government positions, probably trying to offset some of the weaker labor market. All of these things will add to the debasement trade, which will again mean gold. If you get that chance to buy, or I should say for me, if I get that chance to buy at thirty five hundred, I am buying like crazy.

SPEAKER_02 21:54

Yeah. And of course, you know, we see that dollar contradiction too. I mean, looking at the DXY, the the dollar, I mean. Yesterday, I think I was watching your show. You kind of said that the US dollar rally has been underwhelming given the geopolitical shock. Um you tied that to dedollarization. I mean, what are you seeing here on the dollar drop?

SPEAKER_01 22:10

Yeah, taking a look at the dollar chart here. So so if we go back to 2022, right, we had we had Russia invading Ukraine, the dollar just soared. I mean, incredible. Now, granted, this was going into the bear market and the Fed was raising rates, but but you can see the size of this bull move. And then if we look at what's the rally that's occurred in the dollar recently with a war that the US is directly involved in with Iran, the the rally has been very underwhelming, like you're saying. In fact, right back to what we would call on a chart basis was support all over here, right? And then we broke down and it's become resistance. And so the dollar is into resistance, and I would say the dollar is likely going to weaken further here. And this is just in that bigger de-dollarization scenario, which will take years to play out, right? But slowly the dollar likely goes lower. And I'm I'm a bear on the dollar. Most people would say, well, wouldn't that make you a bull on gold? It will eventually, just not until those weak hands are flushed out.

SPEAKER_02 23:07

Yeah. And I mean, if the dollar is no longer getting the kind of crisis bid it used to get, I mean, what does that mean for the next gold cycle? Are we moving into a market where gold no longer needs a falling dollar to rise because confidence in fiat is weakening more broadly?

SPEAKER_01 23:21

That's what I think. Yeah. I think I think the confidence, not only I think, I think a large portion is overall globally too, right? It's not just Americans that are losing trust and considering that the debt, the U.S. debt is now north of 39 trillion, but it's global powers that are saying, hey, we can't be so reliant on the dollar as a reserve currency because it makes the U.S. too powerful in dictating and putting tariffs on us. We have to kind of go with whatever the U.S. is saying because we are beholden to them and the financial system that they've built. And so I think that's all encompassing here. And it does tell us that gold will likely, regardless of the dollar, trend higher. I think the dollar does weaken, but I think also gold is not going to be beholden to the only way gold goes up is if the dollar weakens. I don't think that's the case anymore.

SPEAKER_02 24:04

Yeah, yeah. I mean, you pointed out too that the Canadian dollar and the euro are holding up much better than you would normally expect in a crisis. Does does that tell you we're moving into a different kind of market where you know that trade-off on the old safe haven dollar playbook kind of completely changes here, it feels like.

SPEAKER_01 24:20

It does. And I agree wholeheartedly. There's a fantastic, what we call an inverse head and shoulders on the Canadian dollar. We can see it right here. And again, this is a very bullish sign for the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. Um, most other currencies, if we take a look at the the uh let's look at the EUR USD here. If we look at this, this has already had a massive breakout. Look at this breakout of this trend line. And this tells me that again, usually when breakouts occur like this, it's not just a little one and done where it pops up like this on the weekly chart. This is gonna go higher. And that just tells us, again, the dollar will be weakening against these other currencies, and ultimately that de dollarization will continue for years and years and years to come. Um, and again, a lot of it is the other countries being kind of not so okay with the power that the U.S. has wielded. But also it's just more of a kind of a situation where the US deficit just continues to get worse and worse. And again, we came into the 2025 year, Doge is gonna make all these cuts, get fiscal spending under. None of it happened. I mean, it happened for a split second, and now it's gone the opposite way to spend, spend, spend, including a war now that is already in the$20 plus billion dollar cost to the US.

SPEAKER_02 25:29

Yeah, yeah. And uh I think even asking for more uh money on that front too. Uh let's make this a little bit more practical for for the investors too. I mean, if somebody already owns physical gold or gold equities and watch today's flosh, I mean, what's the move? Do you sit tight? Do you wait for a lower price, or do you start start scaling in?

SPEAKER_01 25:47

Yeah, and I think that really depends on risk tolerance of each individual investor, right? So for me, I'm much more of a quick trader, so I'll I'm gonna I'm gonna wait for lower moves. Now, granted, I did pick up GDX today, right? So, so I mean I'm looking for a bounce on a swing trade basis, but if someone has physical, I don't think it's worth uh unloading any of that at this point. And even now at this point, we're already down from 5,600 to close to 4,000, 42,000, 4,300. I don't think this is the time to now exit positions. For anything, from for me, it's more of a okay, if it goes lower, I'm gonna buy with the same concept of de dollarization, the US deficit, global deficits getting uh explosive and moving kind of continuing higher. And it's more of an adding opportunity now. Once you get before that for below 4,000, the the exit time was was a while ago. To me, it's more okay, where am I adding to my position on the way down?

SPEAKER_02 26:37

And I mean, if you see a little bit more downside in gold here, Gareth, I mean, where do you think is the better tactical opportunity right now? You you mentioned Bitcoin relief rally towards 85,000. Is that where you'd rather put money to work in the near term while the metals settle?

SPEAKER_01 26:53

Yeah, I I think so at in the near term. Now, listen, Bitcoin is certainly more volatile. I mean, believe it or not, it's it is, I guess, more volatile than gold, although gold has been pretty wild recently. Um, but if we look at Bitcoin here, I still continue to like the price action. So Bitcoin has been trending with lower, excuse me, higher highs and higher lows. As long as it holds the baseline of this parallel here, which we can see right here, then you gotta think that this continues to make a move up. And I think a lot of this was front loading, right? So investors were really exiting the Bitcoin trade over the last six months. Bitcoin dropped over 50%, while gold in the stock market were still pretty much near all-time highs or close to all-time highs. And so I think there's more of a money rotation now, maybe out of gold, maybe out of silver, looking for one of these assets that is still beaten down, that that again has maybe a little bit of upside. And I think the narrative of Bitcoin being done and institutional money not being interested, I honestly think that got overblown in the near term. And so I still am looking for that move to 80 to 85,000 before all is said and done. Now, listen, when the markets dump, just like gold, probably everything goes down with it. So you could still see lower moves on Bitcoin, even into the 50,000 range. But again, at least in the near term, I like this asset as one that has more upside than, for instance, gold or silver in the near term.

SPEAKER_02 28:09

Interesting. Yeah. It's been uh I mean today's chart will it's been interesting to watch. I mean, uh, are you thinking that this, I mean, you said it was front-loaded and there's a lot of upside that came early. Where do you where do you see it finishing on the year? 85,000?

SPEAKER_01 28:22

It could, it's tricky, right? So I think we'll hit 80 to 85. So anywhere between 80 to 85, obviously, picking an exact top is very, very tricky. But my fear is that before year end, the stock market has its next major leg down where we could be headed back. I mean, really, if we go to the SP chart, you know, what the chart is telling me based on this bigger parallel that goes back to the COVID lows in 2020 to the bull market highs of 2021, look at how the perfect parallel trend line marks all the lows. The highs are marked here beautifully. So, what this tells me is that the stock market, the SP, could easily trade back down to 5600 by year end. If that happens, I think we hit 80 to 85. Basically, the point is if we get to 80 to 85, I'm exiting a good chunk of my Bitcoin and I'll just wait for that next flush. And if the stock market does go this low, you you would at that point have to assume Bitcoin takes another leg down.

SPEAKER_02 29:13

Yeah. Uh any advice, I mean, for traders? I mean, I've been getting tweeted about it all day all weekend, just people asking, it's like, what do you do in this market? Psychologically, I mean, it's quite stressful. Any advice for people out there that are caught in this volatility?

SPEAKER_01 29:27

Yeah, I I think the biggest one is to just be very aware of your time horizon, right? So if you're someone who's not touching your money for 20 plus years and it's retirement, then who cares about all these moves? I mean, again, you know, what what does it matter if gold drops 20%, if if it's up 300% in 20 years or whatever, right? So I think that's important. Um, and I think just understanding those time frames are the best thing to get you through this. If you're a shorter term trader, yeah, you got to be on point. You know, I was up this morning at 3:34 in the morning watching to see where gold was going, where oil was going, maneuvering in my portfolio. Um, but again, if you're someone who's longer term, just sit back, let things pan out, kind of go with the longer-term narratives, which are the dedarization aspect. Those are the ones that are gonna mean something to you. Don't get too worked up. The market is a genius at pushing us to our limits and making us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. You gotta step back and say, what is my time horizon? Where do I think this is going over that period? Then make your decision.

SPEAKER_02 30:26

Yeah, well said. In this market, I mean, survive first, then press your advantage, I guess. Don't let the headline volatility force you into emotional decisions. Uh, good to have you on, my friend. Appreciate that. Thanks for testing the thesis against today's tape.

SPEAKER_01 30:39

Absolutely, Jeremy. Such a pleasure to talk to you every time.

SPEAKER_02 30:41

All right. Thanks, Kara. Appreciate your time as always. And a big thanks to our sponsor, Swan Bitcoin, your partner for generational wealth. You can get started at Swan.com slash Kitco. Now, for our audience, we want to hear from you. What's today's move the bottom? Leave your comments below. We do read them, and to stay ahead of the markets with accurate market-first reporting, subscribe right here to Kitco News. Hit that notification bell. I'm Jeremy Sappin. We'll see you tomorrow.

SPEAKER_00 31:08

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