Silver Looks Stronger Than Gold Right Now. Here’s Why | Gary Wagner

The gold and silver markets are hitting a major pivot point as extreme geopolitical volatility clashes with a wave of aggressive technical selling. After gold touched a peak of $5,434 following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, the metal has retreated significantly, testing critical support levels amid massive daily price swings of up to $200. 

In this episode of Chart This recorded March 9 2026, Gary Wagner, Editor of The Gold Forecast, explains why he is strictly ignoring the "unsustainable" daily wicks and instead focusing on the "real bodies" of the candlesticks to find the true market floor. We also dive into the 38% surge in oil prices this week—which Gary identifies as the primary "leading indicator" for all asset classes—and the "highly exaggerated" 4% jump in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that is acting as a massive anchor on the metals complex. 

From the possibility of an "A-B-C correction" to silver’s surprising internal strength, this interview provides the roadmap needed to navigate these unique and volatile times.

CHAPTERS
0:00 - Introduction: Gold's Major Pivot Point 
1:45 - Trump’s Iran Comments and Market Stability 
2:45 - Technical Selling vs. Flight to the Dollar 
4:30 - Why Gary Ignores the "Wicks": Finding the Real Floor 
6:15 - The Strait of Hormuz and the $150 Oil Threat
8:00 - Silver Analysis: Fibonacci Retracements and Internal Strength 
10:15 - The DXY "Anchor": A 4% Jump in the Dollar Index 
12:30 - The A-B-C Correction: One More Move Lower? 
15:30 - Why Oil is the "Leading Indicator" for All Asset Classes 
17:30 - Strategy for Unique Times: Physical Gold and Non-Leveraged Plays 

#Gold #Silver #GaryWagner #KitcoNews #MarketAnalysis #Investing #OilPrices #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldPriceToday
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Disclaimer:  
The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:00

Kitco News, Chart This with Gary Wagner.

SPEAKER_00 0:05

Welcome back to Chart This. I'm Jeremy Saffron. The gold market's hitting a major pivot point as the recent geopolitical rally meets a wave of aggressive technical selling. Now, after gold touched a peak of about 5434 following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the metal has retreated significantly. Uh, still testing that critical$5,000 level. Uh, today at the session on the spot price, right now$51.30. Now, we're seeing a massive struggle here. On one side, oil has jumped nearly 38% this week, stoking major inflation fears. And it looks like those prices have stabilized to here around$90. And on the other, there's a strengthening of the US dollar, and it's acting as a massive anchor on the metals complex. Joining us to pinpoint where the floor is in this market, of course, is the editor of the Gold Forecast, our very own Gary Wagner. Welcome back to the show, Gary. Good to see you as always.

SPEAKER_03 0:57

Likewise, good to see you guys. And these are most interesting times. Um, I'm sure the audience is perplexed about some of the activities and price changes and things like gold. We know why oil is moving higher. Uh, we know about the conflict. And the question is A, will it be short-lived? B, what repercussions could come from it? And how will it affect uh everyday people in terms of the economy, buying goods and services and that what and whatnot. And that is something that everyone wants to know about.

SPEAKER_00 1:34

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Well said. And I mean, you know, I mean, looking at the daily chart for spot gold, and I know that you use futures. I mean, we hit a session low today of around$5,013, which kind of puts us right on that major$5,000 psychological level floor. Now it's since kind of rebounded, and we just got this news that looks like President Trump made some comments moments ago about the war in Iran saying that it is, quote, nearly complete uh pretty much, is what he's saying. So these are looking like a little bit of more stability inside of the market today, but still volatile. And Gary, I mean,$200 price swing every day. So I mean, you know, is is this is this current pullback of a sign of you know a broader trend failure, or are we just seeing a necessary kind of washout before the next leg higher? Where are we at?

SPEAKER_03 2:21

Well, the one thing that we have noticed, it's been reported by multiple on news stations, is at first many investors and traders believed that the downside, recent downside in gold was due to uh technical selling. That explains some of it, but it's why they were technically selling. And that is in times of crisis, one, specifically with oil moving higher, and the chance that the Fed is not going to be as accommodative, accommodative with rate cuts, they seem to be moving uh large amounts of gold back into dollars. And we've seen that in dollar strength, we've seen that in the decline of gold. Silver's kind of acted on its own, whereas gold was down massively yesterday in Australia and has recovered at least 50%. Um, silver is tugging along and actually trading higher on the day. Yeah. The question is, excuse me, if this is going to be a short event or an elongated, protracted event, because each of those scenarios carries different possibilities in terms of where we're going to see the metals move, the dollar move, and specifically oil. Oil obviously is a big thing. Uh the Strait of Hamuz is effectively closed, and that could change at any moment. And that's going to be a big deciding factor when we see these markets pivot.

SPEAKER_00 3:57

Yeah, yeah. And I mean, you know, fundamentally, obviously, we know we can't predict what's going to happen today or tomorrow. But I mean, from a technical standpoint, if we can't hold this$5,000 handle, I mean, I think your points back the last time we had you on was about$4,800 as an ex structural support. I mean, conversely, we have that volume dominator resistor kind of at$5,195. I mean, on a daily closing basis, which of those levels is the market kind of telegraphing right now?

SPEAKER_03 4:28

Well, in terms of gold, there's very strong support at$5,000. When we look, I've got gold on both sides, um, because I want to put different studies up later if time permits. But we've seen gold wick down to uh 59 or 5011 here, and then here to 5,024. But the real bodies, meaning, excuse me, the relationship between the open and closing price on a candlestick, of course, if it's red, it means it closes lower. Green means it closes higher. But you've had these bodies sitting just below 5,100, and that is where I am pegging a major level of support. I tend not to count the wicks because these are unsustainable lows on the downside or unsustainable highs on the upside, as we see right here. So I look for where the real bodies are either opening or closing, and it's right below 5,100.

SPEAKER_00 5:25

Yeah, good point. I mean, you know, uh, I guess we could crack that open a little bit more. I mean, you and I have talked about this before. I just came back from a trade show where everyone was talking about these daily prices. You know,$10 silver in one day would have been some big news back in the day. And in conversion, like$5,000 gold to$5,200, that was just today. So, I mean, in your experience, did do these rapid recoveries lead to sustainable new highs, or are we just building a massive head and shoulder pattern that spells trouble for the next few months?

SPEAKER_03 5:56

Well, it it depends on the the macro geopolitical environment that gold is trading within. Because when you think about it, and this all has to do with the Strait of Hormuz, yes, 20% of the oil comes out of global production, comes out of the strait. But for a country like India, 40% of their oil comes directly from Iran. China, 40% comes from Iran. Um, and so it has the ability to affect the global economic macros in a much more intense way than if it was another commodity or something else was at play. It is a challenging time, absolutely. And I think that as long as this is not a sustained conflict, as long as this resolves itself within a week or two weeks, um, things will pivot and go back to the way they were. If it moves much further, three weeks, month, a month, or months, god forbid, then all bets are off in terms of having a soft landing, so to speak, because an extended conflict would mean so much damage could occur economically for countries across the world, let alone let alone the the tragedies that are happening in different parts of the world right now.

SPEAKER_00 7:31

Yeah. Uh, you know, if you look at silver, I mean, Gary, it's it's up today. So is that telling you the market has better internal strength than gold right now, or is this just a short covering bounce inside a weaker structure?

SPEAKER_03 7:46

This is certainly not a short covering bounce. Um, what I did what what what was interesting, and I'll see if I can get this up. I should be able to. Uh February tracement. So if I do a February tracement from silver when it's at 4850 up to the high of about 121, um, what we're going to find is, and let me move these uh averages up, what you'll find is the market comes down, and then it really goes between uh a 61 and a 78% correction. That's an extremely deep correction. But then considering that silver moved from$46 to$121, uh deep correction can be expected. The interesting thing is if I do a Fibonacci retracement from this low here, this wick to here, this is also about a 61.8% retracement. So we're seeing deep corrections, but in all cases, these corrections are acceptable in terms of they don't represent a pivot from bullish to bearish, but rather a correction within a bullish market that is still sustainable. And that's what I find is interesting right now.

SPEAKER_00 9:05

Yeah, I mean, so this so the bid is coming back. I mean, does does that tell you that buyers were waiting at lower levels all along? And and I mean, you know, what would confirm that this this is real accumulation rather than just a reflex bounce?

SPEAKER_03 9:19

What tells you that it's not a re if the market would have made this major move up to 120 and then fell down to I think um$64, roughly in half in a short period of time. If it was just a bounce or something, we would have seen sideways trading uh meandering lower. But the fact that it recovered about 50% of the drop tells me it wasn't just a bounce because you got buyers coming in at this bottom and aggressively moving the market higher.

SPEAKER_00 9:53

Tell me a little bit about the DXY, Gary. I mean, we're hearing about it today, obviously, dollar showing resistance, uh, sorry, uh quite a bit of support. I mean, right now, when you're looking at this in terms of the metals complex, I mean, you're starting to see some trends here.

SPEAKER_03 10:06

So let's consider that the bottom of the dollar short term, I can move this down a little bit, but came down at around 95.58. That's the dollar index. And then it's moved up hugely, uh, you know, two, three percent, where we've seen this tremendous move. And this is the point in which gold was really getting uh pushed down to lower prices. You typically don't see big moves like this on the dollar. Typically on the dollar, you have these smaller candles because currencies don't tend to have wild swings against the basket of currencies that they're being uh traded against. And the dollar index is really compared to eight other currencies, euro being the primary one, I believe, encompassing 51, 54 percent. But you've got the uh the British uh sterling in there, you've got Japanese yen, you've got Swiss franc, Swiss Corona, other things. So these moves are highly exaggerated moves. And so we have seen we have seen uh the dollar, excuse me, move back up to almost 99. So when you consider 95 to 95, that is a 4% jump, an increase of value relative to the other currencies of in in the short time of a couple of months.

SPEAKER_00 11:33

Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_03 11:34

So that's a fast move.

SPEAKER_00 11:35

That is a fast move. Yeah, and I mean, you know, you're looking at the medals. I mean, over the next few weeks, is your best or your base case kind of that gold holds its correction and pushes to fresh highs, or do you see a kind of a bit of a deeper reset before the bull trend resumes? What's that number like?

SPEAKER_03 11:51

Well, I mean, unquestionably, this market has been on fire. If we look back to uh August 2025, it's sitting at 3300, and from there it tops out at 5600. Uh, thousands of dollars in terms of gains. And then in a couple of days, a lot of it was given back. And so the way I'm looking at it, we are definitely still in a correction. The question is, was the question, was the correction this brutal and quick, and now we're getting the recovery here? Or if it's uh like what we call an ABC correction where you get your first wave down is your A, then your next wave up is your B, your final C will take you back down. How is this particular scenario going to unfold? And in this case, markets always move based on fundamentals. Technicals simply tell us where they've been, and therefore we can ascertain where they might go. But we are at a critical point in terms of gold, whether it's going to hold these levels and move higher off that, or if it will complete that ABC correction and have one move lower. Right now, the strength of this uptrend, even though it sold off pretty hard uh back on uh Wednesday, the 4th of March, it's even recovering from that. And then even when you look at uh like today, and you see that the lows came in at around$5,032, it's$120 off of that at$51.52. So we're seeing some real resilience. And as you had mentioned, Trump said some news, and I'm not privileged to what was said because getting ready for this interview, but statements that are that are going to offer hope that this conflict is coming to an end quicker than later are going to have the unwinding effect um that we've seen come in as this conflict developed.

SPEAKER_00 13:59

Yeah. And happening fast, I may say. It's uh hard to keep up with. So so thanks for making the time, Garrett. And also, uh well, let's ask Silver too. I mean, just to get a little wrap-up on that, I mean, do you do you kind of expect this rebound bid to carry into a stronger recovery from here, or is the metal still too vulnerable to add that other leg up?

SPEAKER_03 14:23

Personally, I think silver is headed higher. Um it's broken above. This is the next minor level of resistance at 87.51, and it's at 86.98, so not that far. And then, of course, this is major resistance at 97 to um$100 per ounce. I think silver is moving higher. Interesting.

SPEAKER_00 14:46

Anything that you think uh we should be watching for that you found interesting in this past few weeks that just goes, well, there might be more to this story.

SPEAKER_03 14:56

The one thing that um investors and traders want to pay attention to more than anything is the price of oil. And watching if and when, well, it's gonna be when, but when we get a point where that crazy volatility comes out, as you said, it was trading at 120 a barrel and then broke back through 90 all in one day. Um, I've heard some analysts saying it's going to 150 or higher. Uh, I I pray they're wrong, because that sets all kinds of repercussions globally, because everything is dependent on the energy that that provides, whether it's running companies, whether it's running factories, whether it's running transportation. That's a critical component of our daily life in society at this point in time. So that's what we want to watch because it seems that oil is setting the precedent for what the other markets do. Whether the stock markets globally um recover, it's, I believe, going to be highly based upon oil prices stabilizing and moving back into acceptable levels. If they maintain, uh, if oil maintains the price back above 100, that's when economies have issues, and that's when we see things breaking down. So that's what you're going to want to watch. That's the leading indicator in my mind uh to what these rest, the rest of the stocks, equities, commodities, the asset classes are going to do in terms of the price over time.

SPEAKER_00 16:36

Yeah. And Gary, I mean, you always keep calm in these markets, surprisingly not. I mean, it we you and ICAC quite often, it kind of gives good perspective uh in this. I mean, with a weekly expected range of over 300 points, I mean, precision trading becomes almost impossible for the average investor. For someone looking at a three-month horizon, for instance, I mean, should they be ignoring these daily wicks entirely and focus strictly on the monthly closing trend?

SPEAKER_03 17:03

It's if you're a trader, it's virtually impossible to trade off of a monthly chart. Even a weekly gets tough. Yeah. Um, what you want to do is um take your strategy um and refine it so that it is not as susceptible or risk. Uh there's not that much risk that comes in when you have these crazy moves. Uh, one thing, let's take it back to what we do, which is the precious metals. Um, I have recommended to our traders in our premium group that besides trading, they want to begin, if they haven't already, to continue to accumulate physical gold because you're going to hold that for a long period of time. You can't uh stops can't get executed. You're not it's not that you're not worried about day-to-day, but you can weather a storm if you believe that once the storm has cleared, that the metal will return to uh upside movement. So that's one recommendation. Um, another one is to move into GLD and things that are not leveraged, because when you have increased volatility and major volatility, uh sometimes the futures markets become extremely volatile and difficult to trade with any kind of realistic uh risk-reward ratio that makes sense. So those are the things that you really want to look at. And that's what I talk about with my clients: alternate strategies for unique times, and that's what we have.

SPEAKER_00 18:36

Yeah, well, I appreciate this, Gary, as we always do. We thank you for coming on the program. Of course, you you work with us here at Kitko often. Uh, also talk to me about thegoldforecast.com.

SPEAKER_03 18:46

Well, thanks so very much. I really think that in this time, with what's going on, all of us need a mentor, even myself. I know that I've reached out to a couple of uh people I've worked with throughout my lifetime to say, what's your take on this? This is not the kind of market you want to tackle alone. Uh, you want some source of um professional mentorship where they can attempt to make some sense or at least share their ideas of what one or two possible scenarios could be. So we do have a premium membership for the for those that watch us and read out, read our KICO articles every day. Thank you, and watch these interviews. God bless you, thank you. But we do a video five days a week, four at the minimum. And um, what I recommend is you can get any information from thegoldforecast.com. If you think it's going to be of value to you, uh sign up for the premium account. If it's not, just go ahead and drop it, and you'll only be billed for that cycle. And we'll offer you 30% off if you put the word Kitko in the coupon box. So we want to make it really affordable to those that really want to learn about gold and realize that now is a time they may want um some mentorship.

SPEAKER_00 20:08

Yeah, some help to navigate these extreme volatile times. Uh, appreciate it, Gary. Thanks again for joining us, and we'll see you soon.

SPEAKER_03 20:16

Thank you for having me.

SPEAKER_00 20:17

Thanks, Gary. And of course, for the latest spot prices and breaking market news, stay with us here at Kitco.com. We get some great content coming out all week long. It's going to be a busy one. Stay tuned. We're back in the studio. I'm Jeremy Savford. Thanks for watching.

SPEAKER_02 20:30

Kitco News Chart This with Gary Wagner.

SPEAKER_01 20:34

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